{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a91abaf-f859-4480-b7d3-44c7c802f832", "symbol": "000517", "name": "Rongan Property Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.953, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.352, "architecture_energy": 10.505, "architecture_maturity": 57.483, "architecture_confidence": 55.955, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.75, "rotation_up": 36.19, "upward_expansion": 21.61, "deceleration": 40.53, "rotation_down": 22.78, "downward_expansion": 57.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.902, 1.834, 1.862238, 1.894215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.12, "trend_reference": 1.919667, "distance_from_trend": 0.104358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.128591, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.776229, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.15847, "excess_performance": 0.15107, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104358, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021244, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047762, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194504, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15847, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725681, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191548557, "relative_activity": 1.580599, "balance": 0.725681, "dry_up": 1.544117, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089985, "annualized_volatility": 0.483463, "from_high_reference": -0.120332, "from_low_reference": 0.31677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.919667, "fair_value_reference": 2.128591, "structural_low": 1.61, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.010256, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.014556, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.241245, "worst_return": -0.099602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008612, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.014649, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.225681, "worst_return": -0.086957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.076503, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.054948, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.093385, "worst_return": -0.040609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110599, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035533, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106599, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104762, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", 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110680897.5, "trend": 1.904333, "fair_value": 2.134826, "relative_strength": -15.887281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.737697, "energy": 66.907081, "activity_lines": [ 1.684667, 1.747818, 1.831524, 1.876387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.97, "volume": 290729195, "typical_volume": 118631537.3, "trend": 1.909333, "fair_value": 2.131628, "relative_strength": 2.305843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.500298, "energy": 23.764928, "activity_lines": [ 1.778, 1.778, 1.839524, 1.880624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.12, "volume": 191548557, "typical_volume": 121187345.95, "trend": 1.919667, "fair_value": 2.128591, "relative_strength": 4.776229, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.352026, "energy": 10.504926, "activity_lines": [ 1.902, 1.834, 1.862238, 1.894215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }