{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a95d57c-362f-4acf-9c71-a8f87ffc70e0", "symbol": "MTV", "name": "Mondo TV S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.845, "architecture_energy": 77.22, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.13, "rotation_up": 9.36, "upward_expansion": 16.35, "deceleration": 37.65, "rotation_down": 81.15, "downward_expansion": 94.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.038753, 0.041871, 0.045599, 0.04715 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0356, "trend_reference": 0.049663, "distance_from_trend": -0.283173, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.134437, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.735191, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.026672, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.33829, "excess_performance": -0.509182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.283173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041988, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.735191, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031515, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.440267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160497, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33829, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2652497, "relative_activity": 1.585332, "balance": 0.520434, "dry_up": 1.445917, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171132, "annualized_volatility": 0.562379, "from_high_reference": -0.55611, "from_low_reference": 0.022989 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.049663, "fair_value_reference": 0.134437, "structural_low": 0.0348, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.048275, "positive_rate": 0.270833, "directional_follow_through": 0.708333, "median_excess_return": -0.051248, "regime_survival": 0.895833, "best_return": 1.378641, "worst_return": -0.512116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.173129, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.197683, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 1.490421, "worst_return": -0.7825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.318952, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.393444, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.056962, "worst_return": -0.498062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 4359695, "typical_volume": 1915097.95, "trend": 0.050807, "fair_value": 0.141572, "relative_strength": -35.064018, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.959322, "energy": 68.851292, "activity_lines": [ 0.044267, 0.047387, 0.048652, 0.049545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0387, "volume": 1184476, "typical_volume": 1881602.35, "trend": 0.050477, "fair_value": 0.13916, "relative_strength": -39.098217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.726607, "energy": 76.645348, "activity_lines": [ 0.041887, 0.045502, 0.047654, 0.048763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 1480272, "typical_volume": 1856571.25, "trend": 0.05013, "fair_value": 0.136782, "relative_strength": -36.448026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.784891, "energy": 72.870701, "activity_lines": [ 0.04078, 0.044016, 0.046821, 0.048088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0356, "volume": 2652497, "typical_volume": 1673148.85, "trend": 0.049663, "fair_value": 0.134437, "relative_strength": -44.026672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.84454, "energy": 77.220496, "activity_lines": [ 0.038753, 0.041871, 0.045599, 0.04715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }