{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a99bf7a-5ec3-49fa-a5df-a00c81296981", "symbol": "UPVLD", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Prime Value Screened UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.049, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.99, "architecture_energy": 65.337, "architecture_maturity": 83.044, "architecture_confidence": 67.932, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 54.95, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 28.83, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.969, 36.881455, 36.195571, 35.589483 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.395, "trend_reference": 34.938238, "distance_from_trend": 0.070317, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.857148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173834, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.137855, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090354, "excess_performance": -0.080538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070317, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065576, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013664, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090354, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.161662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14949, "relative_activity": 2.359152, "balance": 1.161662, "dry_up": 3.131806, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016611, "annualized_volatility": 0.103811, "from_high_reference": -0.006905, "from_low_reference": 0.228829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.938238, "fair_value_reference": 31.857148, "structural_low": 32.605, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.011521, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.003993, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.043984, "worst_return": -0.063513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022897, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003856, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.109718, "worst_return": -0.091362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045533, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.006716, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.15404, "worst_return": -0.108295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4405.75, "trend": 34.702995, "fair_value": 31.735573, "relative_strength": -3.15937, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.946828, "energy": 66.6985, "activity_lines": [ 36.891668, 36.647364, 35.834548, 35.296227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.674999, "volume": 49752, "typical_volume": 6170.0, "trend": 34.821533, "fair_value": 31.793453, "relative_strength": -4.298702, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.493774, "energy": 62.184998, "activity_lines": [ 36.792001, 36.713091, 35.988809, 35.423453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.395, "volume": 14949, "typical_volume": 6336.6, "trend": 34.938238, "fair_value": 31.857148, "relative_strength": -5.137855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.99046, "energy": 65.337331, "activity_lines": [ 36.969, 36.881455, 36.195571, 35.589483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }