{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a9a033b-c40e-4168-a830-d6b7a44a519b", "symbol": "ANEW", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST MSCI TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.469, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.155, "architecture_energy": 68.362, "architecture_maturity": 20.224, "architecture_confidence": 79.504, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.64, "rotation_up": 62.3, "upward_expansion": 85.26, "deceleration": 53.94, "rotation_down": 23.16, "downward_expansion": 11.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.069793, 51.670335, 50.861061, 50.058584 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 53.6972, "trend_reference": 49.459522, "distance_from_trend": 0.08568, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.724904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.514587, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.092546, "excess_performance": -0.033079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08568, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00535, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057484, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045146, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066096, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092546, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.809654, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1504, "relative_activity": 1.796464, "balance": 1.809654, "dry_up": 0.916149, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020143, "annualized_volatility": 0.158188, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.213433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.459522, "fair_value_reference": 44.724904, "structural_low": 44.2523, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.014471, "positive_rate": 0.62963, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.004144, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.051488, "worst_return": -0.058379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017201, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.016649, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.091178, "worst_return": -0.047065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057934, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.028932, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.173616, "worst_return": -0.014223, "sufficient": true 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"volume": 1101, "typical_volume": 1085.4, "trend": 49.311846, "fair_value": 44.334032, "relative_strength": -6.142947, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.169582, "energy": 80.851573, "activity_lines": [ 51.496688, 50.99666, 49.849325, 49.43633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.1947, "volume": 329, "typical_volume": 1093.3, "trend": 49.340236, "fair_value": 44.424728, "relative_strength": -6.117223, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.549738, "energy": 78.704057, "activity_lines": [ 51.523614, 51.10051, 50.068532, 49.557804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.4075, "volume": 322, "typical_volume": 954.1, "trend": 49.3296, "fair_value": 44.508383, "relative_strength": -6.70553, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.180456, "energy": 68.774679, "activity_lines": [ 51.214727, 51.03333, 50.203804, 49.62666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.7013, "volume": 913, "typical_volume": 835.65, "trend": 49.374079, "fair_value": 44.608102, "relative_strength": -5.078348, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.61295, "energy": 55.063843, "activity_lines": [ 51.346147, 51.182197, 50.448998, 49.779673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.6972, "volume": 1504, "typical_volume": 837.2, "trend": 49.459522, "fair_value": 44.724904, "relative_strength": -4.514587, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.155464, "energy": 68.362117, "activity_lines": [ 52.069793, 51.670335, 50.861061, 50.058584 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }