{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3a9e82dc-6271-40c9-9e49-d50adfd41def", "symbol": "600879", "name": "China Aerospace Times Electronics CO., LTD.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.17, "architecture_energy": 78.947, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.212, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.39, "rotation_up": 11.08, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 72.54, "downward_expansion": 89.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.002, 17.827961, 19.649725, 20.742487 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.4, "trend_reference": 22.446548, "distance_from_trend": -0.269375, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.47983, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.428593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.685466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.363107, "excess_performance": -0.319903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.269375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079196, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.428593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.108321, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.672607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.363107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536859, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 473395812, "relative_activity": 0.795373, "balance": 0.536859, "dry_up": 1.040391, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.177096, "annualized_volatility": 0.732575, "from_high_reference": -0.491315, "from_low_reference": 0.670061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.446548, "fair_value_reference": 11.47983, "structural_low": 13.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.027913, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006983, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.14986, "worst_return": -0.111111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015175, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.03242, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.295103, "worst_return": -0.096022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.066667, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.253916, "worst_return": -0.109739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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20.129576, 20.485767, 21.453484, 22.205239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.62, "volume": 588915736, "typical_volume": 629331863.7, "trend": 22.773548, "fair_value": 11.37997, "relative_strength": -15.037234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.167676, "energy": 63.728483, "activity_lines": [ 18.172402, 19.343832, 20.746548, 21.671784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.58, "volume": 390468858, "typical_volume": 607226587.9, "trend": 22.610548, "fair_value": 11.423529, "relative_strength": -16.037793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.462299, "energy": 80.381131, "activity_lines": [ 16.603196, 18.349351, 20.090661, 21.143168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.4, "volume": 473395812, "typical_volume": 595187532.25, "trend": 22.446548, "fair_value": 11.47983, "relative_strength": -8.685466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.170496, "energy": 78.947079, "activity_lines": [ 16.002, 17.827961, 19.649725, 20.742487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }