{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3a9f49a8-3dfe-4f1d-86ab-9c4a6e047e32",
    "symbol": "EMGF",
    "name": "ISHARES EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY FACTOR ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 80.197,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 13.658,
    "architecture_energy": 15.715,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.597,
    "architecture_confidence": 92.605,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 55.09,
        "rotation_up": 20.73,
        "upward_expansion": 47.31,
        "deceleration": 84.7,
        "rotation_down": 39.33,
        "downward_expansion": 29.97
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        68.856667,
        69.803664,
        69.963297,
        68.484698
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 70.21,
    "trend_reference": 66.576658,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.054574,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 49.470339,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.419234,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.335272,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.113641,
    "excess_performance": -0.011984,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054574,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072393,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.419234,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.132385,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013353,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.122539,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.113641,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.112881,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 781035,
      "relative_activity": 1.012094,
      "balance": 1.112881,
      "dry_up": 1.167393,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.058186,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.281567,
      "from_high_reference": -0.083181,
      "from_low_reference": 0.354338
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 66.576658,
      "fair_value_reference": 49.470339,
      "structural_low": 57.490781,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.002451,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006747,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.157455,
        "worst_return": -0.047334,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.052512,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.037036,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.234147,
        "worst_return": 0.005644,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.08803,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067171,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.295923,
        "worst_return": 0.026159,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.21981,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011116,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.293895,
        "worst_return": 0.145725,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2023-12-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012317,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.001999,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.039136,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007852,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.006777,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      {
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 829220.1,
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        "fair_value": 48.882987,
        "relative_strength": 2.170879,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 34.198995,
        "energy": 19.265272,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 67.54,
        "volume": 478573,
        "typical_volume": 804695.4,
        "trend": 65.925234,
        "fair_value": 49.065539,
        "relative_strength": 2.371378,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 23.219302,
        "energy": 19.159731,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 68.05,
        "volume": 893191,
        "typical_volume": 783018.15,
        "trend": 66.232903,
        "fair_value": 49.258482,
        "relative_strength": 1.839772,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 19.312487,
        "energy": 17.60157,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 70.21,
        "volume": 781035,
        "typical_volume": 771702.1,
        "trend": 66.576658,
        "fair_value": 49.470339,
        "relative_strength": 1.335272,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 13.657519,
        "energy": 15.71462,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}