{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3aa6d630-1fe8-4285-a64d-fa48832ef72b", "symbol": "SAP", "name": "SAP SE ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.737, "architecture_energy": 33.037, "architecture_maturity": 29.115, "architecture_confidence": 64.899, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.45, "rotation_up": 61.1, "upward_expansion": 33.73, "deceleration": 45.61, "rotation_down": 17.03, "downward_expansion": 22.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 181.414667, 172.122182, 170.891842, 173.197861 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 206.16, "trend_reference": 180.331298, "distance_from_trend": 0.143229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 210.724756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.658028, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.031095, "excess_performance": -0.09453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.143229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116464, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021662, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.229998, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031095, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.018764, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14335501, "relative_activity": 0.897705, "balance": 2.018764, "dry_up": 1.1439, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07815, "annualized_volatility": 0.423634, "from_high_reference": -0.278269, "from_low_reference": 0.422087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 180.331298, "fair_value_reference": 210.724756, "structural_low": 144.97, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.026141, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013018, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026141, "worst_return": -0.026141, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.065172, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.036499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065172, "worst_return": 0.065172, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.214181, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.172551, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214181, "worst_return": 0.214181, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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160.0, "volume": 20667541, "typical_volume": 15551597.8, "trend": 183.203406, "fair_value": 209.896137, "relative_strength": -31.564472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.033392, "energy": 39.30218, "activity_lines": [ 159.334, 161.628545, 165.833866, 171.583802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 183.62, "volume": 21953917, "typical_volume": 15999042.1, "trend": 181.558681, "fair_value": 210.252674, "relative_strength": -21.324697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.588816, "energy": 10.983712, "activity_lines": [ 167.568667, 164.896, 167.282029, 171.610679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 206.16, "volume": 14335501, "typical_volume": 15969053.3, "trend": 180.331298, "fair_value": 210.724756, "relative_strength": -13.658028, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.736878, "energy": 33.036523, "activity_lines": [ 181.414667, 172.122182, 170.891842, 173.197861 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }