{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3aafe4f9-b76b-42d4-a656-f8e90f2b6af4", "symbol": "600153", "name": "Xiamen C&D Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.833, "architecture_energy": 16.329, "architecture_maturity": 99.011, "architecture_confidence": 70.253, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.45, "rotation_up": 28.64, "upward_expansion": 15.24, "deceleration": 42.54, "rotation_down": 25.31, "downward_expansion": 58.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.702, 8.60427, 8.737586, 8.842529 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8.63, "trend_reference": 8.977504, "distance_from_trend": -0.038708, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.033541, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.249351, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076303, "excess_performance": -0.033099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038708, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039817, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082494, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.281613, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117093406, "relative_activity": 1.389631, "balance": 1.281613, "dry_up": 1.293682, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062523, "annualized_volatility": 0.260713, "from_high_reference": -0.247475, "from_low_reference": 0.073383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.977504, "fair_value_reference": 9.033541, "structural_low": 8.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.007257, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.004184, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.255347, "worst_return": -0.103241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.016894, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011708, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.178872, "worst_return": -0.096106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.084599, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.049207, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.323904, "worst_return": -0.111377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-31", "close": 8.98, "volume": 118315777, "typical_volume": 84233894.45, "trend": 8.9918, "fair_value": 9.029141, "relative_strength": -2.325593, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.291274, "energy": 14.44106, "activity_lines": [ 8.688, 8.611642, 8.757667, 8.865871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.63, "volume": 117093406, "typical_volume": 84262250.8, "trend": 8.977504, "fair_value": 9.033541, "relative_strength": -8.249351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.832662, "energy": 16.329354, "activity_lines": [ 8.702, 8.60427, 8.737586, 8.842529 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }