{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ab0aa5b-4a91-43e6-86d9-6d7346297b6a", "symbol": "EMERG", "name": "Franklin FTSE Emerging Markets", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.357, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.696, "architecture_energy": 33.368, "architecture_maturity": 39.982, "architecture_confidence": 77.309, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.81, "rotation_up": 41.6, "upward_expansion": 68.52, "deceleration": 87.7, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 13.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.963267, 28.962982, 28.711733, 28.327209 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.332001, "trend_reference": 27.891133, "distance_from_trend": 0.05166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.286895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.2242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086572, "excess_performance": 0.03326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038012, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022242, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3168, "relative_activity": 4.938041, "balance": 0.765583, "dry_up": 3.746785, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028242, "annualized_volatility": 0.21421, "from_high_reference": -0.00835, "from_low_reference": 0.230679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.891133, "fair_value_reference": 25.286895, "structural_low": 25.673, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 23.267, "volume": 8843, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 23.452999, "volume": 1569, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"2026-05-22", "close": 27.841999, "volume": 32, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 28.822001, "volume": 43, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 29.579, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 28.268, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 29.326, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.577999, "volume": 496, "typical_volume": 520.65, "trend": 27.256133, "fair_value": 25.008138, "relative_strength": 4.954658, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.833211, "energy": 48.321678, "activity_lines": [ 28.8652, 28.738618, 28.089852, 27.758305 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.290001, "volume": 170, "typical_volume": 169.2, "trend": 27.3731, "fair_value": 25.061, "relative_strength": 5.735081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.31094, "energy": 48.54872, "activity_lines": [ 28.990333, 28.863745, 28.238948, 27.889523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.358, "volume": 746, "typical_volume": 206.45, "trend": 27.4959, "fair_value": 25.113402, "relative_strength": 7.778279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.708242, "energy": 51.976642, "activity_lines": [ 29.106933, 28.978927, 28.385495, 28.017581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.337, "volume": 4704, "typical_volume": 415.5, "trend": 27.584667, "fair_value": 25.152241, "relative_strength": 3.771083, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.151887, "energy": 35.280637, "activity_lines": [ 28.897933, 28.881418, 28.4259, 28.071845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.063, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 450.5, "trend": 27.697633, "fair_value": 25.198798, "relative_strength": 5.737737, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.5872, "energy": 36.486898, "activity_lines": [ 28.926333, 28.926364, 28.533219, 28.167222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.642, "volume": 1043, "typical_volume": 495.65, "trend": 27.796567, "fair_value": 25.239306, "relative_strength": 2.399584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.813539, "energy": 26.612768, "activity_lines": [ 28.831933, 28.889218, 28.594757, 28.228148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.332001, "volume": 3168, "typical_volume": 641.55, "trend": 27.891133, "fair_value": 25.286895, "relative_strength": 2.2242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.695963, "energy": 33.367705, "activity_lines": [ 28.963267, 28.962982, 28.711733, 28.327209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }