{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ab45184-0416-4c9b-bc4e-6964699414c8", "symbol": "WEAT", "name": "WisdomTree Wheat", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.655, "architecture_energy": 59.175, "architecture_maturity": 10.592, "architecture_confidence": 73.504, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.27, "rotation_up": 63.17, "upward_expansion": 83.31, "deceleration": 49.03, "rotation_down": 11.42, "downward_expansion": 12.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.367866, 18.022218, 17.702809, 17.468585 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.98, "trend_reference": 17.004, "distance_from_trend": 0.057398, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.229017, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.064955, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.03006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.180875, "excess_performance": 0.009983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057398, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.064955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076802, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013229, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180875, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.275898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48163, "relative_activity": 0.667727, "balance": 1.275898, "dry_up": 1.072529, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060542, "annualized_volatility": 0.281136, "from_high_reference": -0.107471, "from_low_reference": 0.249479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.004, "fair_value_reference": 19.229017, "structural_low": 14.896, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.03879, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.025189, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.11103, "worst_return": -0.237966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.189616, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.134711, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.067518, "worst_return": -0.252136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.252401, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.264757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018669, "worst_return": -0.35424, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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17.952073, 17.652333, 17.39914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.98, "volume": 48163, "typical_volume": 72129.75, "trend": 17.004, "fair_value": 19.229017, "relative_strength": -5.03006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.654705, "energy": 59.175404, "activity_lines": [ 18.367866, 18.022218, 17.702809, 17.468585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }