{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3abd0a69-9138-4a06-b13b-437a5bf3da4c", "symbol": "CE", "name": "Celanese Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.753, "architecture_energy": 74.597, "architecture_maturity": 16.442, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.32, "rotation_up": 15.93, "upward_expansion": 17.21, "deceleration": 37.94, "rotation_down": 71.67, "downward_expansion": 95.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.049912, 46.560345, 50.428247, 52.472656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 43.89, "trend_reference": 53.558596, "distance_from_trend": -0.180524, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 87.566568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.498781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.098142, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.199434, "excess_performance": -0.325059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180524, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041399, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.498781, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114521, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208152, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.199434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.231482, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16651168, "relative_activity": 1.68837, "balance": 0.231482, "dry_up": 1.080327, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105516, "annualized_volatility": 0.478883, "from_high_reference": -0.379208, "from_low_reference": 0.250642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.558596, "fair_value_reference": 87.566568, "structural_low": 41.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.020399, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.002864, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.206891, "worst_return": -0.282544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039159, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.002919, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.486257, "worst_return": -0.513467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.078251, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.130627, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.013417, "worst_return": -0.494415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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51.635543, 55.297892, 55.017959 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.887664, "volume": 9171296, "typical_volume": 10596125.0, "trend": 53.292472, "fair_value": 89.49933, "relative_strength": -14.855597, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.082772, "energy": 52.726666, "activity_lines": [ 48.59898, 50.316335, 54.397561, 54.612127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.668504, "volume": 7217223, "typical_volume": 10389171.4, "trend": 53.406534, "fair_value": 89.041393, "relative_strength": -15.081771, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.327374, "energy": 59.863292, "activity_lines": [ 47.251099, 49.181868, 53.415248, 54.120258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.398001, "volume": 8648719, "typical_volume": 10034449.75, "trend": 53.526265, "fair_value": 88.554516, "relative_strength": -12.515146, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.472348, "energy": 56.370488, "activity_lines": [ 46.667149, 48.389154, 52.522642, 53.668095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.72, "volume": 10100806, "typical_volume": 9685699.3, "trend": 53.613039, "fair_value": 88.069583, "relative_strength": -16.167683, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.433866, "energy": 67.76468, "activity_lines": [ 45.841332, 47.480477, 51.484032, 53.099948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.89, "volume": 16651168, "typical_volume": 9862274.8, "trend": 53.558596, "fair_value": 87.566568, "relative_strength": -20.098142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.753289, "energy": 74.596565, "activity_lines": [ 45.049912, 46.560345, 50.428247, 52.472656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }