{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ac82fb7-69ed-4683-80a3-9c039a12297f", "symbol": "HYBRIDFIN", "name": "Hybrid Financial Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.256, "architecture_energy": 22.809, "architecture_maturity": 15.621, "architecture_confidence": 55.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.75, "rotation_up": 18.45, "upward_expansion": 7.87, "deceleration": 56.82, "rotation_down": 59.55, "downward_expansion": 49.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.132667, 19.007091, 19.151095, 19.073591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.73, "trend_reference": 19.102, "distance_from_trend": -0.071825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.154487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.923666, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107251, "excess_performance": -0.063542, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.227874, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107251, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.173683, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36930, "relative_activity": 0.319492, "balance": 4.173683, "dry_up": 0.385486, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167599, "annualized_volatility": 0.812271, "from_high_reference": -0.472635, "from_low_reference": 0.35758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.102, "fair_value_reference": 14.154487, "structural_low": 14.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.158449, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.155993, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.526063, "worst_return": -0.111919, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.089814, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.084354, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.160385, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.157703, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.123605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157703, "worst_return": 0.157703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.288191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125975, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007784, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.250142, 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"volume": 72336, "typical_volume": 115806.0, "trend": 19.281, "fair_value": 13.897436, "relative_strength": 1.659905, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.438093, "energy": 32.946016, "activity_lines": [ 20.708667, 19.869091, 19.523857, 19.361204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.030001, "volume": 43606, "typical_volume": 115689.45, "trend": 19.243667, "fair_value": 13.964295, "relative_strength": -3.643312, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.575316, "energy": 13.488599, "activity_lines": [ 19.821334, 19.606364, 19.422048, 19.280495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.139999, "volume": 65279, "typical_volume": 116377.4, "trend": 19.192667, "fair_value": 14.029615, "relative_strength": -1.003144, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.386299, "energy": 7.670603, "activity_lines": [ 18.853333, 19.392909, 19.335476, 19.20929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 32418, "typical_volume": 115495.05, "trend": 19.140667, "fair_value": 14.092756, "relative_strength": -1.971702, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.547593, "energy": 15.271167, "activity_lines": [ 18.508667, 19.27, 19.285619, 19.164602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.73, "volume": 36930, "typical_volume": 115589.9, "trend": 19.102, "fair_value": 14.154487, "relative_strength": -6.923666, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.255871, "energy": 22.809243, "activity_lines": [ 18.132667, 19.007091, 19.151095, 19.073591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }