{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ac9ad21-14e5-4267-9f96-14b0eacd2f86", "symbol": "MINT", "name": "Minor International Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.313, "architecture_energy": 19.207, "architecture_maturity": 41.343, "architecture_confidence": 77.168, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.58, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 56.64, "deceleration": 87.68, "rotation_down": 30.66, "downward_expansion": 20.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.266666, 23.536364, 23.04577, 22.831261 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 23.4, "trend_reference": 22.771651, "distance_from_trend": 0.027593, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.451357, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.284233, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055007, "excess_performance": -0.247332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027593, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01863, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107022, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090301, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055007, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.728817, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 133999700, "relative_activity": 1.116451, "balance": 1.728817, "dry_up": 1.342677, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055227, "annualized_volatility": 0.380823, "from_high_reference": -0.116256, "from_low_reference": 0.217402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.771651, "fair_value_reference": 25.451357, "structural_low": 19.319325, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023437, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.006782, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.064585, "worst_return": -0.132231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050961, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.06012, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094766, "worst_return": -0.107692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.136691, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.125762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007775, "worst_return": -0.153702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.057423, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.051249, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.013628, "worst_return": -0.187894, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012097, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074196, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168122, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013953, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { 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22.953202, 22.790805 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.4, "volume": 133999700, "typical_volume": 120022865.55, "trend": 22.771651, "fair_value": 25.451357, "relative_strength": -11.284233, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.312762, "energy": 19.207401, "activity_lines": [ 23.266666, 23.536364, 23.04577, 22.831261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }