{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ad6fb8d-688c-4187-813a-fc19c4610ef3", "symbol": "JOG", "name": "Jersey Oil and Gas Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.894, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.965, "architecture_energy": 47.594, "architecture_maturity": 14.359, "architecture_confidence": 49.261, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.24, "rotation_up": 67.51, "upward_expansion": 68.36, "deceleration": 55.21, "rotation_down": 6.15, "downward_expansion": 11.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.198667, 1.121273, 1.073452, 1.080075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.185, "trend_reference": 1.0729, "distance_from_trend": 0.104483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.225115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032744, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.796868, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.354286, "excess_performance": 0.30305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002492, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113746, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.354286, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.738838, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 685668, "relative_activity": 1.212521, "balance": 1.738838, "dry_up": 2.421517, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115982, "annualized_volatility": 0.720917, "from_high_reference": -0.290419, "from_low_reference": 0.742647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.0729, "fair_value_reference": 1.225115, "structural_low": 0.85, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086869, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067005, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.033473, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.230973, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.26666, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.513333, "worst_return": -0.327273, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.019553, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.486667, "worst_return": -0.226263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.025196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.578212, "worst_return": -0.373737, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052198, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.611765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.490909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.079832, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.477477, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.391459, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.825503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.201732, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030612, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.312821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115672, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.84, "volume": 850038, "typical_volume": 712167.7, "trend": 2.016333, "fair_value": 1.830032, "relative_strength": -15.560087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.195932, 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1.009109, 1.033624, 1.048991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.34, "volume": 2156216, "typical_volume": 581520.7, "trend": 1.061067, "fair_value": 1.233385, "relative_strength": 10.604972, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.498127, "energy": 46.282992, "activity_lines": [ 1.174, 1.074618, 1.058471, 1.06832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.125, "volume": 1148226, "typical_volume": 582194.9, "trend": 1.066733, "fair_value": 1.228897, "relative_strength": -7.658754, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.279362, "energy": 37.512693, "activity_lines": [ 1.181667, 1.094218, 1.062938, 1.072445 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.185, "volume": 685668, "typical_volume": 565489.65, "trend": 1.0729, "fair_value": 1.225115, "relative_strength": -2.796868, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.965377, "energy": 47.593559, "activity_lines": [ 1.198667, 1.121273, 1.073452, 1.080075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }