{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3adbb2f0-9051-41cd-956f-4d5e519b64e1", "symbol": "TEF", "name": "Telef\u00f3nica, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.013, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.566, "architecture_energy": 15.198, "architecture_maturity": 20.264, "architecture_confidence": 68.006, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.91, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 12.93, "deceleration": 63.65, "rotation_down": 35.69, "downward_expansion": 38.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.617267, 3.618397, 3.673384, 3.681901 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.671, "trend_reference": 3.661458, "distance_from_trend": 0.002606, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.700374, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.670347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014369, "excess_performance": -0.110062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002606, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012836, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029436, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.176703, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012798, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014369, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.97236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45665124, "relative_activity": 1.009272, "balance": 0.97236, "dry_up": 1.1777, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039524, "annualized_volatility": 0.194098, "from_high_reference": -0.217434, "from_low_reference": 0.134425 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.661458, "fair_value_reference": 3.700374, "structural_low": 3.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050422, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057959, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.093012, "worst_return": -0.166286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041871, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06232, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148203, "worst_return": -0.18677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061433, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30069, "worst_return": -0.085651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042822, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098715, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002328, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024753, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014649, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.014303, "volume": 35286464, "typical_volume": 88968270.4, "trend": 3.076016, "fair_value": 2.855869, "relative_strength": -3.2862, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.296717, "energy": 14.888545, "activity_lines": [ 3.040074, 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"energy": 18.244339, "activity_lines": [ 3.650187, 3.708772, 3.726254, 3.69633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.526, "volume": 41887981, "typical_volume": 52061883.5, "trend": 3.637791, "fair_value": 3.686587, "relative_strength": -21.091455, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.972882, "energy": 42.491738, "activity_lines": [ 3.597498, 3.670769, 3.707627, 3.689043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.618, "volume": 61799320, "typical_volume": 50067131.45, "trend": 3.644391, "fair_value": 3.689924, "relative_strength": -17.497356, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.170771, "energy": 44.693753, "activity_lines": [ 3.589267, 3.652835, 3.698014, 3.687766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.598, "volume": 48265678, "typical_volume": 48029325.8, "trend": 3.649491, "fair_value": 3.692051, "relative_strength": -18.618839, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.50334, "energy": 44.911097, "activity_lines": [ 3.586067, 3.633267, 3.687601, 3.684773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.587, "volume": 57412885, "typical_volume": 47976338.45, "trend": 3.653024, "fair_value": 3.696207, "relative_strength": -18.795809, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.990329, "energy": 32.915454, "activity_lines": [ 3.585533, 3.615234, 3.676488, 3.680741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.671, "volume": 45665124, "typical_volume": 45245604.85, "trend": 3.661458, "fair_value": 3.700374, "relative_strength": -17.670347, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.5664, "energy": 15.198498, "activity_lines": [ 3.617267, 3.618397, 3.673384, 3.681901 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }