{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3add39f8-06c8-444b-848d-7ba04b91e3af", "symbol": "HAPV3", "name": "Hapvida Participa\u00e7\u00f5es e Investimentos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.576, "architecture_energy": 12.35, "architecture_maturity": 15.406, "architecture_confidence": 68.119, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.21, "rotation_up": 24.1, "upward_expansion": 22.9, "deceleration": 42.09, "rotation_down": 30.56, "downward_expansion": 51.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.806, 10.738545, 11.152048, 11.146624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.77, "trend_reference": 11.276667, "distance_from_trend": -0.044931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.51814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.734193, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.151686, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084962, "excess_performance": -0.027913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15213, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.734193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.461517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155979, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.238359, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21740000, "relative_activity": 0.662946, "balance": 1.238359, "dry_up": 0.682952, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120634, "annualized_volatility": 0.654025, "from_high_reference": -0.747539, "from_low_reference": 0.538571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.276667, "fair_value_reference": 40.51814, "structural_low": 7.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.028336, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.028461, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.132199, "worst_return": -0.345508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.190738, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.155179, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.093827, "worst_return": -0.545288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.316325, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.270736, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.015284, "worst_return": -0.693005, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 29.423825, "activity_lines": [ 10.798667, 10.937091, 11.314952, 11.319591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.92, "volume": 26295400, "typical_volume": 39106030.0, "trend": 11.535333, "fair_value": 41.337371, "relative_strength": -53.773699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.413699, "energy": 31.507136, "activity_lines": [ 10.561333, 10.701636, 11.195714, 11.205419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.28, "volume": 18584100, "typical_volume": 37831875.0, "trend": 11.426, "fair_value": 40.951987, "relative_strength": -47.092725, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.418646, "energy": 13.989399, "activity_lines": [ 10.803333, 10.759455, 11.204381, 11.188946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.77, "volume": 21740000, "typical_volume": 32793035.0, "trend": 11.276667, "fair_value": 40.51814, "relative_strength": -46.151686, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.57565, "energy": 12.350377, "activity_lines": [ 10.806, 10.738545, 11.152048, 11.146624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }