{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ae1f28b-b46f-47d1-9e84-236d56f95265", "symbol": "FTGC", "name": "FIRST TRUST GLOBAL TACTICAL COMMODITY STRATEGY FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.825, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.372, "architecture_energy": 44.113, "architecture_maturity": 10.157, "architecture_confidence": 47.135, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.89, "rotation_up": 68.56, "upward_expansion": 69.75, "deceleration": 55.63, "rotation_down": 9.2, "downward_expansion": 13.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.95044, 28.433907, 28.458045, 28.23717 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.91, "trend_reference": 27.54558, "distance_from_trend": 0.049533, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.562298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340766, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.200945, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.191829, "excess_performance": 0.004376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049533, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067641, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340766, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.002009, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037553, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.191829, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459186, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2973291, "relative_activity": 0.765438, "balance": 0.459186, "dry_up": 0.676588, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028326, "annualized_volatility": 0.174641, "from_high_reference": -0.050869, "from_low_reference": 0.387572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.54558, "fair_value_reference": 21.562298, "structural_low": 23.682643, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009605, "positive_rate": 0.617647, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": 0.008513, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.142686, "worst_return": -0.120918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026238, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.023609, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.212604, "worst_return": -0.117957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.085477, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.043955, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.203158, "worst_return": -0.05441, "sufficient": true }, { 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28.213225, 27.63417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.02, "volume": 2366139, "typical_volume": 4105273.95, "trend": 26.74289, "fair_value": 21.311714, "relative_strength": -2.468383, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.001863, "energy": 23.035457, "activity_lines": [ 27.455307, 27.815075, 28.212622, 27.727891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.83, "volume": 2206626, "typical_volume": 4113413.9, "trend": 26.950595, "fair_value": 21.373539, "relative_strength": 4.555634, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.947366, "energy": 17.02722, "activity_lines": [ 27.919898, 27.925418, 28.273484, 27.862543 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.4222, "volume": 2971518, "typical_volume": 4121507.25, "trend": 27.156687, "fair_value": 21.437633, "relative_strength": 8.162554, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.811917, "energy": 38.419245, "activity_lines": [ 28.508067, 28.15192, 28.373275, 28.022002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.94, "volume": 2361206, "typical_volume": 3941099.15, "trend": 27.358204, "fair_value": 21.500214, "relative_strength": 5.588245, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.229524, "energy": 42.739639, "activity_lines": [ 28.80192, 28.293347, 28.418272, 28.137054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.91, "volume": 2973291, "typical_volume": 3884429.85, "trend": 27.54558, "fair_value": 21.562298, "relative_strength": 0.200945, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.372042, "energy": 44.113226, "activity_lines": [ 28.95044, 28.433907, 28.458045, 28.23717 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }