{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ae4e985-0f79-4034-bc62-6e8bc5b26905", "symbol": "4305", "name": "Shih-Kuen Plastics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.648, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.175, "architecture_energy": 77.982, "architecture_maturity": 17.375, "architecture_confidence": 61.143, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.69, "rotation_up": 72.74, "upward_expansion": 87.54, "deceleration": 48.12, "rotation_down": 9.98, "downward_expansion": 16.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.826666, 42.30951, 41.775505, 41.479255 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.75, "trend_reference": 40.995371, "distance_from_trend": 0.067194, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.306039, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172732, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.927033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.110417, "excess_performance": -0.330955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067194, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023504, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031987, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21927, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087268, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110417, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.184288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28000, "relative_activity": 0.959418, "balance": 1.184288, "dry_up": 0.618499, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021946, "annualized_volatility": 0.127886, "from_high_reference": -0.027778, "from_low_reference": 0.167043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.995371, "fair_value_reference": 37.306039, "structural_low": 39.166486, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.020761, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.002336, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.111433, "worst_return": -0.091188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.032386, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.053909, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.205257, "worst_return": -0.112766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.007924, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.041267, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.241541, "worst_return": -0.041489, 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.730721, "energy": 53.47813, "activity_lines": [ 41.582553, 41.433286, 41.257385, 41.029784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.549999, "volume": 23000, "typical_volume": 30004.55, "trend": 40.685029, "fair_value": 37.081434, "relative_strength": -23.072388, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.833765, "energy": 29.287802, "activity_lines": [ 41.556666, 41.4759, 41.297897, 41.090514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.799999, "volume": 18202, "typical_volume": 29361.3, "trend": 40.839479, "fair_value": 37.194691, "relative_strength": -19.995861, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.561411, "energy": 55.300542, "activity_lines": [ 42.239999, 41.922418, 41.546672, 41.29148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 43.75, "volume": 28000, "typical_volume": 29184.35, "trend": 40.995371, "fair_value": 37.306039, "relative_strength": -21.927033, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.175208, "energy": 77.981781, "activity_lines": [ 42.826666, 42.30951, 41.775505, 41.479255 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }