{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3ae86c4b-3405-45f3-975e-28dd5972366e",
    "symbol": "BFEB",
    "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - February",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 71.273,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 86.615,
    "architecture_energy": 72.955,
    "architecture_maturity": 44.116,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.283,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.26,
        "rotation_up": 64.39,
        "upward_expansion": 89.04,
        "deceleration": 51.07,
        "rotation_down": 25.54,
        "downward_expansion": 13.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        53.129007,
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        52.391692,
        51.639116
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 53.8689,
    "trend_reference": 50.774683,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.06094,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 43.150367,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2484,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.689754,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.082792,
    "excess_performance": -0.042833,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06094,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029782,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.2484,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -4.7e-05,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026898,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002933,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082792,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.552478,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 19081,
      "relative_activity": 0.325515,
      "balance": 1.552478,
      "dry_up": 0.848324,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.013045,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.093773,
      "from_high_reference": -0.000577,
      "from_low_reference": 0.182113
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 50.774683,
      "fair_value_reference": 43.150367,
      "structural_low": 46.6,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 44,
        "median_return": 0.009652,
        "positive_rate": 0.727273,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.727273,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001028,
        "regime_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.052168,
        "worst_return": -0.051685,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 16,
        "median_return": 0.03188,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00583,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
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        "worst_return": -0.060644,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010404,
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        "worst_return": -0.013461,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.148342,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.016937,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.211421,
        "worst_return": 0.005954,
        "sufficient": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -2.103802,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 118189,
        "typical_volume": 64384.15,
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        "fair_value": 42.793024,
        "relative_strength": -1.231049,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 64.463255,
        "energy": 66.599674,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 52.4676,
        "volume": 21559,
        "typical_volume": 60708.8,
        "trend": 50.47744,
        "fair_value": 42.905729,
        "relative_strength": -0.951174,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 63.679001,
        "energy": 66.181989,
        "activity_lines": [
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          51.268991
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 52.9651,
        "volume": 40079,
        "typical_volume": 60117.5,
        "trend": 50.61961,
        "fair_value": 43.025016,
        "relative_strength": -1.038483,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.924981,
        "energy": 65.916303,
        "activity_lines": [
          52.751907,
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          51.429485
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 53.8689,
        "volume": 19081,
        "typical_volume": 58617.95,
        "trend": 50.774683,
        "fair_value": 43.150367,
        "relative_strength": -2.689754,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.614583,
        "energy": 72.954592,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}