{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ae940a4-a707-46eb-abef-61c7753ed195", "symbol": "PSX", "name": "Phillips 66", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.372, "architecture_energy": 85.783, "architecture_maturity": 38.986, "architecture_confidence": 84.739, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.15, "rotation_up": 80.07, "upward_expansion": 96.84, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.3, "downward_expansion": 21.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 205.910667, 196.102909, 186.522591, 180.789606 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 203.91, "trend_reference": 171.73971, "distance_from_trend": 0.18732, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 131.962348, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.545213, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.230515, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.312006, "excess_performance": 0.186381, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.18732, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121005, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.545213, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17155, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182305, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075678, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.312006, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.590696, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14773461, "relative_activity": 1.129451, "balance": 1.590696, "dry_up": 0.989987, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059898, "annualized_volatility": 0.344729, "from_high_reference": -0.056322, "from_low_reference": 0.786262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 171.73971, "fair_value_reference": 131.962348, "structural_low": 148.093953, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.023532, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": 0.00433, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.245094, "worst_return": -0.228577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.028066, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.008359, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.332232, "worst_return": -0.044371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.076735, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.06817, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.518872, "worst_return": -0.079279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 85.886911, "energy": 75.317009, "activity_lines": [ 188.429333, 182.929894, 177.747109, 172.933646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 206.77, "volume": 12419148, "typical_volume": 14026940.75, "trend": 166.840513, "fair_value": 130.61126, "relative_strength": 27.394723, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.403831, "energy": 84.594022, "activity_lines": [ 196.724, 187.788182, 180.804174, 175.683824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.68, "volume": 11196372, "typical_volume": 13473994.15, "trend": 169.609863, "fair_value": 131.329513, "relative_strength": 27.938075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.395091, "energy": 90.292982, "activity_lines": [ 203.946667, 192.960909, 184.128982, 178.576694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 203.91, "volume": 14773461, "typical_volume": 13080215.7, "trend": 171.73971, "fair_value": 131.962348, "relative_strength": 18.230515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.371768, "energy": 85.78271, "activity_lines": [ 205.910667, 196.102909, 186.522591, 180.789606 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }