{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3ae94b1c-a9d6-449f-8fa9-fcdc9ce08d25", "symbol": "HAI", "name": "Haivision Systems Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.885, "architecture_energy": 64.981, "architecture_maturity": 53.501, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.89, "rotation_up": 28.84, "upward_expansion": 12.03, "deceleration": 48.95, "rotation_down": 57.75, "downward_expansion": 87.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.376, 4.454364, 5.06781, 5.760817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 4.5, "trend_reference": 6.612667, "distance_from_trend": -0.319488, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.999135, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099844, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.815515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.464286, "excess_performance": -0.584707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.319488, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099844, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.434824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.464286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.241435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128100, "relative_activity": 0.520288, "balance": 0.241435, "dry_up": 0.537955, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105983, "annualized_volatility": 0.545575, "from_high_reference": -0.567308, "from_low_reference": 0.089588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.612667, "fair_value_reference": 4.999135, "structural_low": 4.13, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.011566, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -3e-06, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.406393, "worst_return": -0.25256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019805, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028941, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.41806, "worst_return": -0.302804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.167048, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.03611, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.307042, "worst_return": -0.441121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 4.482667, 4.805636, 5.557476, 6.213742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.27, "volume": 144200, "typical_volume": 285650.0, "trend": 6.684, "fair_value": 4.990417, "relative_strength": -35.130248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.816714, "energy": 83.539414, "activity_lines": [ 4.402667, 4.642, 5.363619, 6.05557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.26, "volume": 98900, "typical_volume": 264800.0, "trend": 6.644667, "fair_value": 4.993365, "relative_strength": -34.656524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.116154, "energy": 83.056946, "activity_lines": [ 4.342667, 4.510545, 5.195381, 5.899183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.5, "volume": 128100, "typical_volume": 246210.0, "trend": 6.612667, "fair_value": 4.999135, "relative_strength": -32.815515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.885361, "energy": 64.98132, "activity_lines": [ 4.376, 4.454364, 5.06781, 5.760817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }