{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3aebc880-15c2-4a88-b8bb-251902aaab2e", "symbol": "DB35", "name": "Xtrackers - LPX Private Equity Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.324, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 58.266, "architecture_energy": 71.173, "architecture_maturity": 7.48, "architecture_confidence": 61.9, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.31, "rotation_up": 74.72, "upward_expansion": 61.68, "deceleration": 23.87, "rotation_down": 16.22, "downward_expansion": 22.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.629334, 112.095273, 110.831334, 110.192129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 118.959999, "trend_reference": 111.333334, "distance_from_trend": 0.068503, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 121.142051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.905569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.032998, "excess_performance": -0.141249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04175, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018012, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047817, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032998, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.389474, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 555, "relative_activity": 1.996762, "balance": 19.389474, "dry_up": 2.64436, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029758, "annualized_volatility": 0.226946, "from_high_reference": -0.128753, "from_low_reference": 0.188887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.333334, "fair_value_reference": 121.142051, "structural_low": 100.059998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074116, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.050699, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.005875, "worst_return": -0.103432, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037586, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.097867, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.04597, "worst_return": -0.128306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.075776, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.230594, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.029426, "worst_return": -0.078403, "sufficient": false }, { 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115.326001, "fair_value": 120.069616, "relative_strength": -26.785266, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.127714, "energy": 23.124198, "activity_lines": [ 109.520001, 109.988728, 108.912667, 111.496818 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 108.519997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 423.0, "trend": 114.976001, "fair_value": 120.218526, "relative_strength": -30.01311, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.336106, "energy": 25.427495, "activity_lines": [ 109.144, 109.728364, 108.808762, 111.057721 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 104.059998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 381.2, "trend": 114.320668, "fair_value": 120.322564, "relative_strength": -30.869451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.321054, "energy": 45.334696, "activity_lines": [ 107.346666, 108.571636, 108.347619, 110.353463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 108.639999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 342.2, "trend": 113.730668, "fair_value": 120.46968, "relative_strength": -28.815582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.954567, "energy": 31.78438, "activity_lines": [ 107.486665, 108.437454, 108.375524, 109.986968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 109.540001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 311.9, "trend": 113.162668, "fair_value": 120.594039, "relative_strength": -26.5344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.582041, "energy": 30.637179, "activity_lines": [ 108.094666, 108.505091, 108.52219, 109.716603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.580002, "volume": 2385, "typical_volume": 365.25, "trend": 112.694001, "fair_value": 120.720705, "relative_strength": -22.206814, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.181927, "energy": 5.792154, "activity_lines": [ 109.574667, 109.147636, 108.979143, 109.679011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 112.540001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 282.7, "trend": 112.209334, "fair_value": 120.84391, "relative_strength": -22.501346, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.971528, "energy": 16.856642, "activity_lines": [ 110.865334, 109.762546, 109.409143, 109.669076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.080002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 250.2, "trend": 111.723334, "fair_value": 120.973718, "relative_strength": -21.328405, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.209797, "energy": 37.1756, "activity_lines": [ 112.068001, 110.420364, 109.863524, 109.725248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.959999, "volume": 555, "typical_volume": 277.95, "trend": 111.333334, "fair_value": 121.142051, "relative_strength": -18.905569, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 58.265834, "energy": 71.172577, "activity_lines": [ 114.629334, 112.095273, 110.831334, 110.192129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }