{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3aef551b-4e16-46b0-989a-e18e38b37c58", "symbol": "GNL", "name": "Global Net Lease, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 71.209, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.269, "architecture_energy": 17.614, "architecture_maturity": 25.552, "architecture_confidence": 63.343, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.54, "rotation_up": 25.22, "upward_expansion": 17.34, "deceleration": 58.32, "rotation_down": 40.65, "downward_expansion": 65.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.004582, 9.003286, 9.120204, 9.172087 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.23, "trend_reference": 9.233451, "distance_from_trend": -0.000374, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.258173, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.978179, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020454, "excess_performance": -0.146078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064231, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020454, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895771, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14125986, "relative_activity": 1.306007, "balance": 0.895771, "dry_up": 1.085945, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045994, "annualized_volatility": 0.175621, "from_high_reference": -0.061939, "from_low_reference": 0.332925 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.233451, "fair_value_reference": 7.258173, "structural_low": 8.43, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024194, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.01911, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.039797, "worst_return": -0.08, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.034949, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122588, "worst_return": -0.134311, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042101, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.118509, "worst_return": -0.238449, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.140271, "fair_value": 7.22542, "relative_strength": -4.677499, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.67111, "energy": 49.369882, "activity_lines": [ 8.945301, 9.075376, 9.193926, 9.213924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.26, "volume": 14182586, "typical_volume": 10927219.75, "trend": 9.181966, "fair_value": 7.234368, "relative_strength": 0.699821, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.81732, "energy": 31.683484, "activity_lines": [ 9.033885, 9.09499, 9.197144, 9.221649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.88, "volume": 10095457, "typical_volume": 10929447.55, "trend": 9.203953, "fair_value": 7.242155, "relative_strength": -3.07148, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.224889, "energy": 31.371926, "activity_lines": [ 8.994532, 9.044967, 9.164059, 9.202167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.72, "volume": 8579028, "typical_volume": 10865999.45, "trend": 9.212282, "fair_value": 7.249735, "relative_strength": -6.023322, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.463951, "energy": 38.914827, "activity_lines": [ 8.91155, 8.972218, 9.116686, 9.170944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.23, "volume": 14125986, "typical_volume": 10816164.7, "trend": 9.233451, "fair_value": 7.258173, "relative_strength": -3.978179, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.269427, "energy": 17.61442, "activity_lines": [ 9.004582, 9.003286, 9.120204, 9.172087 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }