{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3af1a206-a225-4279-9d03-31133125bac1", "symbol": "300611", "name": "Zhejiang Meili High Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.446, "architecture_energy": 42.958, "architecture_maturity": 35.164, "architecture_confidence": 93.186, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.34, "rotation_up": 18.67, "upward_expansion": 9.54, "deceleration": 41.06, "rotation_down": 56.38, "downward_expansion": 80.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.894666, 24.354, 25.115155, 25.710869 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.16, "trend_reference": 26.536438, "distance_from_trend": -0.089554, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.73431, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362331, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.413643, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.135599, "excess_performance": -0.142999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362331, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079595, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.854471, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13254904, "relative_activity": 0.5932, "balance": 0.854471, "dry_up": 0.681919, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107461, "annualized_volatility": 0.493312, "from_high_reference": -0.352799, "from_low_reference": 0.061511 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.536438, "fair_value_reference": 17.73431, "structural_low": 22.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.06232, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.049205, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.248373, "worst_return": -0.148701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049985, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.094255, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.681325, "worst_return": -0.055995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023148, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.068303, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141777, "worst_return": -0.029553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": -57.684023, "energy": 47.069662, "activity_lines": [ 24.994667, 25.564835, 26.018073, 26.465219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.15, "volume": 20850136, "typical_volume": 24936609.85, "trend": 26.816105, "fair_value": 17.465946, "relative_strength": -10.970391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.710288, "energy": 50.680434, "activity_lines": [ 24.622667, 25.253121, 25.797058, 26.286115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.219999, "volume": 16189481, "typical_volume": 24464983.45, "trend": 26.730438, "fair_value": 17.552172, "relative_strength": -14.322625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.993336, "energy": 45.162712, "activity_lines": [ 24.091333, 24.798553, 25.502281, 26.054109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.889999, "volume": 10654743, "typical_volume": 23897283.05, "trend": 26.639772, "fair_value": 17.640282, "relative_strength": -10.198426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.603543, "energy": 50.883823, "activity_lines": [ 23.976666, 24.507143, 25.287599, 25.870854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.16, "volume": 13254904, "typical_volume": 22344743.2, "trend": 26.536438, "fair_value": 17.73431, "relative_strength": -13.413643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.445996, "energy": 42.958056, "activity_lines": [ 23.894666, 24.354, 25.115155, 25.710869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }