{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3af3f4f5-9a8b-40f3-bdb2-eb1ce086bec5",
    "symbol": "AURE",
    "name": "Aurea SA",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 51.711,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -15.798,
    "architecture_energy": 11.108,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.178,
    "architecture_confidence": 52.554,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 53.82,
        "rotation_up": 32.98,
        "upward_expansion": 20.89,
        "deceleration": 37.82,
        "rotation_down": 24.31,
        "downward_expansion": 54.89
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        5.710667,
        5.669818,
        5.676571,
        5.715312
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 5.8,
    "trend_reference": 5.771333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.004967,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 5.466826,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060945,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -6.198175,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.0,
    "excess_performance": -0.053311,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004967,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00995,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060945,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042598,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061982,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.028075,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.233777,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4660,
      "relative_activity": 1.770752,
      "balance": 3.233777,
      "dry_up": 0.871411,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.035013,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.175911,
      "from_high_reference": -0.12361,
      "from_low_reference": 0.086142
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5.771333,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.466826,
      "structural_low": 5.34,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 25,
        "median_return": -0.010676,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.013056,
        "regime_survival": 0.88,
        "best_return": 0.077586,
        "worst_return": -0.14658,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.047966,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.118423,
        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.14,
        "worst_return": -0.204348,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.111732,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.122947,
        "regime_survival": 0.6,
        "best_return": 0.041509,
        "worst_return": -0.221739,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.198113,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.189464,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.124984,
        "worst_return": -0.308696,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.106719,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011538,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-01-24",
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        "return": 0.015326,
        "active": false
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      {
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.582626,
        "energy": 24.043077,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.921333,
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          5.887143,
          5.880273
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 5.46,
        "volume": 6207,
        "typical_volume": 5450.4,
        "trend": 5.849019,
        "fair_value": 5.524648,
        "relative_strength": -6.136991,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -33.153435,
        "energy": 25.976342,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.774667,
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          5.847238,
          5.854952
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 5.62,
        "volume": 10777,
        "typical_volume": 5758.35,
        "trend": 5.850891,
        "fair_value": 5.518751,
        "relative_strength": -3.39068,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.54157,
        "energy": 45.537728,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 5.62,
        "volume": 1787,
        "typical_volume": 5552.2,
        "trend": 5.854064,
        "fair_value": 5.513479,
        "relative_strength": -1.489177,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.287544,
        "energy": 53.274245,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.653333,
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          5.804952,
          5.82528
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 5.64,
        "volume": 3602,
        "typical_volume": 4960.15,
        "trend": 5.835778,
        "fair_value": 5.508586,
        "relative_strength": -3.207339,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.46091,
        "energy": 56.141489,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.628,
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          5.786667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 5.8,
        "volume": 2073,
        "typical_volume": 4304.0,
        "trend": 5.829333,
        "fair_value": 5.504469,
        "relative_strength": -1.35965,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.827731,
        "energy": 38.56381,
        "activity_lines": [
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          5.809161
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 5.74,
        "volume": 33,
        "typical_volume": 4195.95,
        "trend": 5.830667,
        "fair_value": 5.500091,
        "relative_strength": -2.867677,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.232856,
        "energy": 24.004418,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.712,
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          5.775238,
          5.803398
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 5.56,
        "volume": 1512,
        "typical_volume": 3809.1,
        "trend": 5.824667,
        "fair_value": 5.494936,
        "relative_strength": -7.383283,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.383226,
        "energy": 28.612072,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 5.7,
        "volume": 628,
        "typical_volume": 3497.1,
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        "fair_value": 5.491679,
        "relative_strength": -5.825,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -36.307964,
        "energy": 18.445853,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.68,
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          5.74019,
          5.777892
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 5.58,
        "volume": 1475,
        "typical_volume": 3137.45,
        "trend": 5.811333,
        "fair_value": 5.488904,
        "relative_strength": -7.315644,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.987475,
        "energy": 30.595511,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.644,
          5.654182,
          5.720095,
          5.762022
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 5.6,
        "volume": 297,
        "typical_volume": 2916.35,
        "trend": 5.796667,
        "fair_value": 5.485757,
        "relative_strength": -8.171156,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.597162,
        "energy": 41.941139,
        "activity_lines": [
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          5.641818,
          5.702952,
          5.748387
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 5.62,
        "volume": 1563,
        "typical_volume": 2936.55,
        "trend": 5.781333,
        "fair_value": 5.481111,
        "relative_strength": -5.799722,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -49.724292,
        "energy": 32.958517,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.613333,
          5.639636,
          5.689714,
          5.736989
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 5.56,
        "volume": 1788,
        "typical_volume": 2952.65,
        "trend": 5.771333,
        "fair_value": 5.476957,
        "relative_strength": -6.648167,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -56.07977,
        "energy": 40.066672,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.596,
          5.623636,
          5.672476,
          5.72271
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 5.68,
        "volume": 838,
        "typical_volume": 2760.15,
        "trend": 5.770667,
        "fair_value": 5.473196,
        "relative_strength": -4.946167,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -47.573704,
        "energy": 25.392993,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.618667,
          5.630545,
          5.668381,
          5.716817
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 5.72,
        "volume": 1887,
        "typical_volume": 2607.75,
        "trend": 5.772667,
        "fair_value": 5.470067,
        "relative_strength": -5.55742,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -33.123719,
        "energy": 15.8862,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.656,
          5.643636,
          5.668381,
          5.713548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 5.8,
        "volume": 4660,
        "typical_volume": 2631.65,
        "trend": 5.771333,
        "fair_value": 5.466826,
        "relative_strength": -6.198175,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.798188,
        "energy": 11.107968,
        "activity_lines": [
          5.710667,
          5.669818,
          5.676571,
          5.715312
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}