{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b014b6f-0afa-4bf7-bd5e-c224940021c9", "symbol": "VPO", "name": "Vichitbhan Palmoil Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.464, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.243, "architecture_energy": 11.943, "architecture_maturity": 26.87, "architecture_confidence": 56.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.58, "rotation_up": 45.44, "upward_expansion": 28.78, "deceleration": 46.25, "rotation_down": 17.92, "downward_expansion": 26.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.491333, 0.479818, 0.494524, 0.507011 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.48, "trend_reference": 0.506333, "distance_from_trend": -0.052008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.602115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.543776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.142857, "excess_performance": -0.049468, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052008, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108033, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.142857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.094618, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7755000, "relative_activity": 0.219289, "balance": 2.094618, "dry_up": 0.375323, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099359, "annualized_volatility": 0.533348, "from_high_reference": -0.448276, "from_low_reference": 0.263158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.506333, "fair_value_reference": 0.602115, "structural_low": 0.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.019084, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.020297, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.319149, "worst_return": -0.320513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.125217, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.117192, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.042553, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.246154, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.212962, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.155844, "worst_return": -0.405797, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.04, "volume": 27904500, "typical_volume": 14338550.0, "trend": 0.926, "fair_value": 1.232885, "relative_strength": 0.552441, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 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-27.021242, "energy": 25.393088, "activity_lines": [ 0.470667, 0.471091, 0.505333, 0.508839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.52, "volume": 19113000, "typical_volume": 49756920.0, "trend": 0.503333, "fair_value": 0.608974, "relative_strength": -13.220154, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.908635, "energy": 6.788338, "activity_lines": [ 0.49, 0.478909, 0.504333, 0.510108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.48, "volume": 3675800, "typical_volume": 45632135.0, "trend": 0.504667, "fair_value": 0.605577, "relative_strength": -18.531882, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.534624, "energy": 12.247601, "activity_lines": [ 0.492, 0.479091, 0.499286, 0.508602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.48, "volume": 7755000, "typical_volume": 35364275.0, "trend": 0.506333, "fair_value": 0.602115, "relative_strength": -17.543776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.243339, "energy": 11.943069, "activity_lines": [ 0.491333, 0.479818, 0.494524, 0.507011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }