{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b08cafa-1d85-43c9-aae9-0126c80b87c1", "symbol": "CAAA", "name": "FIRST TRUST AAA CMBS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.928, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.885, "architecture_energy": 22.219, "architecture_maturity": 36.005, "architecture_confidence": 92.954, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.4, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 6.68, "deceleration": 41.81, "rotation_down": 46.02, "downward_expansion": 73.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.166973, 20.184445, 20.18826, 20.195235 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.205, "trend_reference": 20.20632, "distance_from_trend": -6.5e-05, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.236475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.050348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.529398, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003423, "excess_performance": -0.129047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -6.5e-05, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.050348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008687, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003423, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710086, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42389, "relative_activity": 1.134444, "balance": 0.710086, "dry_up": 0.765132, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007439, "annualized_volatility": 0.030824, "from_high_reference": -0.016801, "from_low_reference": 0.032053 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.20632, "fair_value_reference": 19.236475, "structural_low": 19.991496, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002718, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.0077, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.004926, "worst_return": -0.005637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.003208, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.117143, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.003208, "worst_return": -0.003208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.714094, "energy": 21.649345, "activity_lines": [ 20.18022, 20.190802, 20.191081, 20.199734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.135, "volume": 19645, "typical_volume": 39686.1, "trend": 20.205087, "fair_value": 19.228849, "relative_strength": -8.009511, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.353654, "energy": 27.747316, "activity_lines": [ 20.157609, 20.181617, 20.186347, 20.195241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.205, "volume": 42389, "typical_volume": 37365.45, "trend": 20.20632, "fair_value": 19.236475, "relative_strength": -10.529398, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.884754, "energy": 22.218629, "activity_lines": [ 20.166973, 20.184445, 20.18826, 20.195235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }