{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b0e9b91-72fc-4a8d-9412-b2e00a4684ac", "symbol": "ALICON", "name": "Alicon Castalloy Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.688, "architecture_energy": 16.382, "architecture_maturity": 20.106, "architecture_confidence": 57.373, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.21, "rotation_up": 39.75, "upward_expansion": 32.27, "deceleration": 43.8, "rotation_down": 23.37, "downward_expansion": 47.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 679.136666, 663.05818, 662.924526, 668.305737 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 742.75, "trend_reference": 680.325625, "distance_from_trend": 0.091757, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 896.57361, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.638528, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.035811, "excess_performance": 0.07952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.091757, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091307, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171568, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007773, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.594837, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 374299, "relative_activity": 5.22576, "balance": 2.594837, "dry_up": 2.011365, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056484, "annualized_volatility": 0.363172, "from_high_reference": -0.27098, "from_low_reference": 0.284584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 680.325625, "fair_value_reference": 896.57361, "structural_low": 578.202689, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003156, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018867, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.091969, "worst_return": -0.059514, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.032, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.347095, "worst_return": -0.072978, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.093038, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.082578, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192476, "worst_return": -0.022361, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -12.671259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.104798, "energy": 41.03831, "activity_lines": [ 637.323324, 642.598177, 653.791447, 665.75891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 666.200012, "volume": 90348, "typical_volume": 56617.15, "trend": 681.764191, "fair_value": 897.023814, "relative_strength": -10.377217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.041546, "energy": 24.69202, "activity_lines": [ 646.176664, 645.969089, 654.67672, 664.371169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 742.75, "volume": 374299, "typical_volume": 71625.75, "trend": 680.325625, "fair_value": 896.57361, "relative_strength": -0.638528, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.688323, "energy": 16.381776, "activity_lines": [ 679.136666, 663.05818, 662.924526, 668.305737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }