{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b17468a-ee37-40f4-8744-9586a5100013", "symbol": "504", "name": "HS Optimus Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -8.044, "architecture_energy": 21.079, "architecture_maturity": 51.122, "architecture_confidence": 81.255, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.0, "rotation_up": 14.33, "upward_expansion": 42.12, "deceleration": 85.65, "rotation_down": 40.05, "downward_expansion": 31.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005667, 0.006145, 0.006381, 0.005983 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.0053, "distance_from_trend": -0.056604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.003006, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.663113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.265626, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.666667, "excess_performance": 0.511832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056604, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.663113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.936887, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032656, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.126352, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.666667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.177549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5253700, "relative_activity": 0.157939, "balance": 0.177549, "dry_up": 0.506443, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215385, "annualized_volatility": 1.153848, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 4.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0053, "fair_value_reference": 0.003006, "structural_low": 0.002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.00713, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.191955, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, 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"2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"relative_strength": 35.124857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.384946, "energy": 32.630797, "activity_lines": [ 0.0068, 0.006945, 0.006462, 0.005813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 40646900, "typical_volume": 38028645.0, "trend": 0.005033, "fair_value": 0.002949, "relative_strength": 32.224654, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.91291, "energy": 22.117641, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.006764, 0.006476, 0.00588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 15222800, "typical_volume": 33951620.0, "trend": 0.005133, "fair_value": 0.002974, "relative_strength": 29.242221, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.957823, "energy": 23.644963, "activity_lines": [ 0.0062, 0.0066, 0.006486, 0.005942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 6262100, "typical_volume": 34001460.0, "trend": 0.005233, "fair_value": 0.002994, "relative_strength": 27.306934, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.402333, "energy": 19.067268, "activity_lines": [ 0.006067, 0.006455, 0.006486, 0.005998 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 5253700, "typical_volume": 33264110.0, "trend": 0.0053, "fair_value": 0.003006, "relative_strength": 3.265626, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.043985, "energy": 21.078793, "activity_lines": [ 0.005667, 0.006145, 0.006381, 0.005983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }