{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b1900bf-528e-409d-9d19-c15a7b8b0a69", "symbol": "STRO", "name": "Sutro Biopharma", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.16, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.549, "architecture_energy": 36.204, "architecture_maturity": 2.188, "architecture_confidence": 50.76, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.98, "rotation_up": 17.95, "upward_expansion": 23.39, "deceleration": 50.2, "rotation_down": 57.48, "downward_expansion": 46.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.606, 26.264545, 28.230381, 27.587484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 25.38, "trend_reference": 25.439667, "distance_from_trend": -0.002345, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.779865, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.77462, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.635309, "excess_performance": 0.447856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.293591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015511, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.481555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.217746, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.266116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.635309, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 810382, "relative_activity": 0.544226, "balance": 0.777952, "dry_up": 0.842714, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220562, "annualized_volatility": 0.964139, "from_high_reference": -0.421209, "from_low_reference": 2.54965 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.439667, "fair_value_reference": 25.779865, "structural_low": 13.8832, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.139997, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.178818, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.077922, "worst_return": -0.202073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.184801, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.370057, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.184801, "worst_return": -0.184801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.222798, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.486453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.222798, "worst_return": -0.222798, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.249728, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.380474, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160764, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 44.7, "volume": 1477749, "typical_volume": 2127095.55, "trend": 51.486667, "fair_value": 120.057692, "relative_strength": -35.253539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.295436, 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32.964626, "energy": 18.628522, "activity_lines": [ 29.262, 30.349818, 29.588, 26.730473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.43, "volume": 1808619, "typical_volume": 1342391.3, "trend": 23.065, "fair_value": 26.425186, "relative_strength": 59.500894, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.484541, "energy": 20.100237, "activity_lines": [ 29.787333, 30.101273, 29.878048, 27.252452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.73, "volume": 1880624, "typical_volume": 1405472.75, "trend": 23.728333, "fair_value": 26.312558, "relative_strength": 50.127146, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.767296, "energy": 19.962156, "activity_lines": [ 29.999333, 29.778182, 30.033476, 27.682452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.57, "volume": 1501489, "typical_volume": 1461240.0, "trend": 24.181333, "fair_value": 26.157878, "relative_strength": 22.435394, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.86686, "energy": 4.639582, "activity_lines": [ 27.915333, 28.441636, 29.548381, 27.672237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.88, "volume": 1742265, "typical_volume": 1505452.5, "trend": 24.561, "fair_value": 26.017365, "relative_strength": 19.310996, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.964127, "energy": 12.5117, "activity_lines": [ 25.95, 27.282727, 28.98281, 27.58828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.17, "volume": 965250, "typical_volume": 1511026.8, "trend": 25.001333, "fair_value": 25.89025, "relative_strength": 23.614237, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.575266, "energy": 30.640244, "activity_lines": [ 24.864667, 26.650909, 28.551571, 27.563054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.38, "volume": 810382, "typical_volume": 1489054.0, "trend": 25.439667, "fair_value": 25.779865, "relative_strength": 21.77462, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.548832, "energy": 36.203757, "activity_lines": [ 24.606, 26.264545, 28.230381, 27.587484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }