{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b1d4632-6030-4b2e-a0ea-0996068fb6fd", "symbol": "S250", "name": "Invesco FTSE 250 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.248, "architecture_energy": 89.737, "architecture_maturity": 27.221, "architecture_confidence": 75.238, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.04, "rotation_up": 84.71, "upward_expansion": 97.86, "deceleration": 39.22, "rotation_down": 10.42, "downward_expansion": 19.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 21473.333333, 21162.090909, 20786.021429, 20509.619355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 22125.0, "trend_reference": 20293.283333, "distance_from_trend": 0.090262, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17738.024101, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24732, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.19758, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.091111, "excess_performance": 0.039876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090262, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028433, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082225, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031976, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091111, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.796188, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6775, "relative_activity": 1.164199, "balance": 3.796188, "dry_up": 2.600675, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022893, "annualized_volatility": 0.158191, "from_high_reference": -0.000226, "from_low_reference": 0.221161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20293.283333, "fair_value_reference": 17738.024101, "structural_low": 18118.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.005305, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001933, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.050125, "worst_return": -0.114736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.011519, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.013322, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.063644, "worst_return": -0.021935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041784, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021862, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.099389, "worst_return": -0.028435, "sufficient": 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"volume": 15892, "typical_volume": 5350.2, "trend": 20166.816667, "fair_value": 17654.927947, "relative_strength": 0.095925, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.826221, "energy": 70.262281, "activity_lines": [ 20951.5, 20813.181818, 20489.440476, 20312.378495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21325.0, "volume": 11054, "typical_volume": 5761.85, "trend": 20225.95, "fair_value": 17693.588204, "relative_strength": -0.277427, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.074092, "energy": 73.933136, "activity_lines": [ 21104.666667, 20922.772727, 20604.430952, 20387.1 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22125.0, "volume": 6775, "typical_volume": 5819.45, "trend": 20293.283333, "fair_value": 17738.024101, "relative_strength": 3.19758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.247884, "energy": 89.736681, "activity_lines": [ 21473.333333, 21162.090909, 20786.021429, 20509.619355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }