{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b1e651c-8abd-4b63-b0c7-de860a0a0006", "symbol": "AQWA", "name": "GLOBAL X CLEAN WATER ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.415, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 9.252, "architecture_energy": 12.004, "architecture_maturity": 9.641, "architecture_confidence": 62.987, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.6, "rotation_up": 31.68, "upward_expansion": 32.34, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 22.66, "downward_expansion": 43.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.34568, 19.275741, 19.122938, 19.189348 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.83, "trend_reference": 19.37612, "distance_from_trend": 0.023425, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.554494, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129625, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.52107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.027703, "excess_performance": -0.215156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023425, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001954, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129625, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024754, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.027703, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.204676, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37365, "relative_activity": 0.868663, "balance": 1.204676, "dry_up": 0.885581, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02825, "annualized_volatility": 0.169167, "from_high_reference": -0.052103, "from_low_reference": 0.093653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.37612, "fair_value_reference": 17.554494, "structural_low": 18.131887, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021409, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001135, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.052151, "worst_return": -0.058643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036188, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.099746, "worst_return": -0.037301, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.03172, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060718, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.098024, "worst_return": -0.034585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021461, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040024, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005434, "active": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -10.225741, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.126961, "energy": 14.321596, "activity_lines": [ 19.200863, 19.107309, 19.042652, 19.17659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.0856, "volume": 30482, "typical_volume": 46590.85, "trend": 19.361257, "fair_value": 17.52262, "relative_strength": -9.832486, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.028837, "energy": 8.371407, "activity_lines": [ 19.138273, 19.128684, 19.047303, 19.159106 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.83, "volume": 37365, "typical_volume": 43014.4, "trend": 19.37612, "fair_value": 17.554494, "relative_strength": -10.52107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.251689, "energy": 12.004351, "activity_lines": [ 19.34568, 19.275741, 19.122938, 19.189348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }