{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b224207-05a0-45fe-aa52-65fca97774ae", "symbol": "EVCM", "name": "EverCommerce Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.02, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.306, "architecture_energy": 25.393, "architecture_maturity": 6.428, "architecture_confidence": 57.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.97, "rotation_up": 59.22, "upward_expansion": 39.8, "deceleration": 36.15, "rotation_down": 14.72, "downward_expansion": 14.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.526, 10.899818, 10.722381, 10.806753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.92, "trend_reference": 11.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.007273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.476474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.343441, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01487, "excess_performance": -0.172584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002268, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04064, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01487, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.294301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 721295, "relative_activity": 1.05167, "balance": 1.294301, "dry_up": 1.28037, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143568, "annualized_volatility": 0.71498, "from_high_reference": -0.242193, "from_low_reference": 0.425587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.0, "fair_value_reference": 10.476474, "structural_low": 8.545, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.002989, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028736, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.067608, "worst_return": -0.074697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024322, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.021759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14099, "worst_return": -0.097097, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00387, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.174171, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.116116, "worst_return": -0.135931, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 10.464936, "relative_strength": -1.478322, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.545196, "energy": 11.02736, "activity_lines": [ 10.559333, 10.140182, 10.480429, 10.693505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.56, "volume": 739905, "typical_volume": 713629.05, "trend": 11.007667, "fair_value": 10.465385, "relative_strength": -3.490455, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.944807, "energy": 17.381606, "activity_lines": [ 11.049333, 10.42, 10.558048, 10.728151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.34, "volume": 563746, "typical_volume": 699988.4, "trend": 11.034, "fair_value": 10.475256, "relative_strength": 2.475113, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.056312, "energy": 31.148432, "activity_lines": [ 11.625333, 10.804, 10.713286, 10.814108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.92, "volume": 721295, "typical_volume": 685856.9, "trend": 11.0, "fair_value": 10.476474, "relative_strength": -13.343441, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.306296, "energy": 25.393315, "activity_lines": [ 11.526, 10.899818, 10.722381, 10.806753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }