{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b24feb1-7857-40a0-bed4-af155a373eff", "symbol": "PROX", "name": "Proximus PLC", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.856, "architecture_energy": 32.722, "architecture_maturity": 76.94, "architecture_confidence": 80.413, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.17, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 33.22, "downward_expansion": 65.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.213667, 6.17, 6.317172, 6.470248 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.29, "trend_reference": 6.707463, "distance_from_trend": -0.062239, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.171467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.05888, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17749, "excess_performance": -0.351737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062239, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021418, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047581, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3277, "relative_activity": 10.731947, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.682987, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037116, "annualized_volatility": 0.316797, "from_high_reference": -0.226386, "from_low_reference": 0.092014 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.707463, "fair_value_reference": 6.171467, "structural_low": 5.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008202, "positive_rate": 0.580645, "directional_follow_through": 0.419355, "median_excess_return": -0.010881, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.252328, "worst_return": -0.207131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.048748, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.045692, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.346783, "worst_return": -0.243117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02284, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.071153, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.284368, "worst_return": -0.362563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050215, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.98283, "energy": 87.928644, "activity_lines": [ 6.307, 6.450455, 6.580373, 6.727196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.895, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1013.05, "trend": 6.814141, "fair_value": 6.13464, "relative_strength": -31.177487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.966164, "energy": 94.956293, "activity_lines": [ 6.134667, 6.337364, 6.496684, 6.665939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.99, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1013.05, "trend": 6.788248, "fair_value": 6.140474, "relative_strength": -28.305092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.09773, "energy": 90.372838, "activity_lines": [ 6.044333, 6.254818, 6.431937, 6.612769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.135, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 941.85, "trend": 6.770379, "fair_value": 6.147768, "relative_strength": -24.337974, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.291617, "energy": 86.096036, "activity_lines": [ 6.042667, 6.207182, 6.390623, 6.570624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.145, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 141.5, "trend": 6.752684, "fair_value": 6.154011, "relative_strength": -24.706507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.85072, "energy": 66.662017, "activity_lines": [ 6.074, 6.170455, 6.353361, 6.530277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.265, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 141.5, "trend": 6.732767, "fair_value": 6.161754, "relative_strength": -22.614262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.527684, "energy": 48.840905, "activity_lines": [ 6.145667, 6.162545, 6.332836, 6.498814 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.29, "volume": 3277, "typical_volume": 305.35, "trend": 6.707463, "fair_value": 6.171467, "relative_strength": -24.05888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.85557, "energy": 32.721631, "activity_lines": [ 6.213667, 6.17, 6.317172, 6.470248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }