{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b25ab29-b894-4b86-9675-a8d86eedac69", "symbol": "NX", "name": "Quanex Building Products", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 35.433, "architecture_energy": 32.926, "architecture_maturity": 26.619, "architecture_confidence": 84.092, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.82, "rotation_up": 60.59, "upward_expansion": 41.61, "deceleration": 29.52, "rotation_down": 18.33, "downward_expansion": 18.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.386667, 18.513006, 18.245545, 18.330756 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21.98, "trend_reference": 18.584036, "distance_from_trend": 0.182736, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.184145, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051938, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.906467, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042028, "excess_performance": -0.083597, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182736, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067113, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051938, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10007, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.139065, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113045, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.462214, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2182604, "relative_activity": 1.18318, "balance": 2.462214, "dry_up": 0.925161, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106163, "annualized_volatility": 0.644888, "from_high_reference": -0.034395, "from_low_reference": 1.019494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.584036, "fair_value_reference": 23.184145, "structural_low": 15.33688, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.007731, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214489, "worst_return": -0.385306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015357, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060663, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.21912, "worst_return": -0.280099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.09664, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.20239, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.030437, "worst_return": -0.436823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.180013, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.227413, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102644, "worst_return": -0.46267, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163582, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.218623, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.145275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19883, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.178763, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.253064, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166583, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038961, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056471, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.286885, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.931167, "volume": 447287, "typical_volume": 690839.8, "trend": 22.908574, "fair_value": 21.587445, "relative_strength": 4.262194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": 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17.164354, 17.308088, 17.87544, 18.152855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.4, "volume": 1774235, "typical_volume": 2203424.4, "trend": 18.133448, "fair_value": 23.370051, "relative_strength": -9.027372, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.284928, "energy": 18.841586, "activity_lines": [ 17.342616, 17.253647, 17.795058, 18.10793 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.17, "volume": 1652648, "typical_volume": 2164869.2, "trend": 18.229199, "fair_value": 23.318858, "relative_strength": -3.167839, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.703044, "energy": 14.372451, "activity_lines": [ 17.640667, 17.383486, 17.811542, 18.110288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.6, "volume": 1383290, "typical_volume": 2070906.75, "trend": 18.343246, "fair_value": 23.267783, "relative_strength": 0.139154, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.687434, "energy": 12.086938, "activity_lines": [ 18.0, 17.627579, 17.879315, 18.134211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.84, "volume": 1608013, "typical_volume": 1963076.5, "trend": 18.430308, "fair_value": 23.211038, "relative_strength": -4.45821, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.854028, "energy": 14.532477, "activity_lines": [ 17.999333, 17.695874, 17.867991, 18.101744 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.98, "volume": 2182604, "typical_volume": 1844693.85, "trend": 18.584036, "fair_value": 23.184145, "relative_strength": 13.906467, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.433039, "energy": 32.925534, "activity_lines": [ 19.386667, 18.513006, 18.245545, 18.330756 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }