{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b2674ea-b4a1-4ec9-9b35-1d0005db4b7a", "symbol": "ALLPL", "name": "Lepermislibre Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.521, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.696, "architecture_energy": 20.234, "architecture_maturity": 50.034, "architecture_confidence": 76.77, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.33, "rotation_up": 23.35, "upward_expansion": 12.94, "deceleration": 44.58, "rotation_down": 30.86, "downward_expansion": 58.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.069507, 0.069338, 0.069886, 0.073183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.07, "trend_reference": 0.077513, "distance_from_trend": -0.09693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.478097, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.853586, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.189643, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.222222, "excess_performance": -0.275534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.853586, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039569, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211896, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26088, "relative_activity": 0.096942, "balance": 0.125101, "dry_up": 0.319819, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122637, "annualized_volatility": 0.488566, "from_high_reference": -0.611111, "from_low_reference": 0.206897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.077513, "fair_value_reference": 0.478097, "structural_low": 0.0584, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.105556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.101997, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.531034, "worst_return": -0.418301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.373832, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.428195, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.440299, "worst_return": -0.650327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.366788, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.443001, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.071642, "worst_return": -0.781046, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 0.077513, "fair_value": 0.478097, "relative_strength": -21.189643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.696358, "energy": 20.233581, "activity_lines": [ 0.069507, 0.069338, 0.069886, 0.073183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }