{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b2918d8-44d5-478e-9422-eda5dcf9637f", "symbol": "AJB", "name": "AJ Bell plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.974, "architecture_energy": 27.712, "architecture_maturity": 59.627, "architecture_confidence": 90.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.43, "rotation_up": 32.99, "upward_expansion": 58.34, "deceleration": 87.83, "rotation_down": 26.53, "downward_expansion": 19.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 600.466667, 603.754545, 592.354332, 565.37822 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 610.5, "trend_reference": 529.260047, "distance_from_trend": 0.153497, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 431.947485, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.413366, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.602154, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.338338, "excess_performance": 0.287102, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153497, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.413366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122881, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086022, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086925, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.338338, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892926, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2791268, "relative_activity": 0.599775, "balance": 0.892926, "dry_up": 0.741617, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073403, "annualized_volatility": 0.40387, "from_high_reference": -0.078491, "from_low_reference": 0.473334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 529.260047, "fair_value_reference": 431.947485, "structural_low": 414.366302, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013217, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005591, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.281404, "worst_return": -0.055041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023984, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.058189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283309, "worst_return": -0.052721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.115369, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.175428, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.249057, "worst_return": -0.12417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"direction": 57.216299, "energy": 45.713412, "activity_lines": [ 608.666667, 608.276462, 580.146596, 550.095008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 596.0, "volume": 3376820, "typical_volume": 5321703.2, "trend": 519.164507, "fair_value": 428.22455, "relative_strength": 7.447751, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.853132, "energy": 39.918474, "activity_lines": [ 605.266667, 607.033618, 584.734902, 555.390052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 587.5, "volume": 4353164, "typical_volume": 5056360.7, "trend": 524.018887, "fair_value": 429.93737, "relative_strength": 4.774512, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.594534, "energy": 28.863686, "activity_lines": [ 599.133333, 602.799102, 587.800178, 559.798793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 610.5, "volume": 2791268, "typical_volume": 4653858.25, "trend": 529.260047, "fair_value": 431.947485, "relative_strength": 8.602154, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.973565, "energy": 27.71189, "activity_lines": [ 600.466667, 603.754545, 592.354332, 565.37822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }