{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b293b93-3bf8-4bea-8ee7-414d34b819a7", "symbol": "TNOW", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Information Technology UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.747, "architecture_energy": 41.874, "architecture_maturity": 73.121, "architecture_confidence": 93.689, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.83, "rotation_up": 42.2, "upward_expansion": 62.97, "deceleration": 85.41, "rotation_down": 27.41, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1161.88466, 1162.226367, 1142.709198, 1096.581358 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1207.880005, "trend_reference": 1040.080664, "distance_from_trend": 0.161333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 827.076474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.460421, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.137634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.316347, "excess_performance": 0.263036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.460421, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052269, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.131376, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.316347, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.685627, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2249, "relative_activity": 0.912781, "balance": 2.685627, "dry_up": 0.852003, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042512, "annualized_volatility": 0.243803, "from_high_reference": -0.000174, "from_low_reference": 0.409428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1040.080664, "fair_value_reference": 827.076474, "structural_low": 857.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002931, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00348, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.101059, "worst_return": -0.141978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090582, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042443, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.172008, "worst_return": -0.080836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.196936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.190944, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288176, "worst_return": 0.003691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.181269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027205, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060908, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073042, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.064716, "energy": 63.092819, "activity_lines": [ 1171.526018, 1168.272383, 1109.222678, 1062.861896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1134.119995, "volume": 2478, "typical_volume": 3082.3, "trend": 1020.126996, "fair_value": 815.565192, "relative_strength": 12.181153, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.443459, "energy": 48.001531, "activity_lines": [ 1159.522673, 1163.795288, 1117.289915, 1070.611616 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1153.869995, "volume": 1476, "typical_volume": 2720.4, "trend": 1026.583997, "fair_value": 819.240641, "relative_strength": 13.200288, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.561804, "energy": 45.100591, "activity_lines": [ 1155.547998, 1162.179648, 1126.166914, 1079.240197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1119.47998, "volume": 2194, "typical_volume": 2551.5, "trend": 1031.987996, "fair_value": 822.812115, "relative_strength": 7.778114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.442183, "energy": 33.231862, "activity_lines": [ 1143.138655, 1153.889096, 1130.704579, 1085.233486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1207.880005, "volume": 2249, "typical_volume": 2463.9, "trend": 1040.080664, "fair_value": 827.076474, "relative_strength": 13.137634, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.747227, "energy": 41.87424, "activity_lines": [ 1161.88466, 1162.226367, 1142.709198, 1096.581358 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }