{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b2b11c0-4b80-4734-8824-40783d6ac066", "symbol": "MEX", "name": "Tortilla Mexican Grill plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.919, "architecture_energy": 7.529, "architecture_maturity": 37.448, "architecture_confidence": 69.609, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.63, "rotation_up": 26.6, "upward_expansion": 42.18, "deceleration": 79.54, "rotation_down": 30.52, "downward_expansion": 36.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.728, 0.729, 0.73831, 0.734161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.74, "trend_reference": 0.709, "distance_from_trend": 0.043724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.531949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391112, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.519707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.233333, "excess_performance": 0.182098, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177219, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391112, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.185197, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264472, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.793123, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58038, "relative_activity": 0.616093, "balance": 5.793123, "dry_up": 0.538768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056393, "annualized_volatility": 0.426014, "from_high_reference": -0.113772, "from_low_reference": 1.176471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.709, "fair_value_reference": 0.531949, "structural_low": 0.57, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061707, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.065118, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.026144, "worst_return": -0.145833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.249306, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.233239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.177778, "worst_return": -0.320833, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.00625, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0622, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.466667, "worst_return": -0.479167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.595833, 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"2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.011111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059459, "active": false }, { 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"trend": 0.694667, "fair_value": 0.533006, "relative_strength": 18.633036, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.733437, "energy": 13.247404, "activity_lines": [ 0.721667, 0.730273, 0.740238, 0.729742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.725, "volume": 144977, "typical_volume": 113349.2, "trend": 0.701833, "fair_value": 0.532397, "relative_strength": 17.281364, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.674353, "energy": 10.904384, "activity_lines": [ 0.721667, 0.728091, 0.738619, 0.731699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.74, "volume": 58038, "typical_volume": 94203.35, "trend": 0.709, "fair_value": 0.531949, "relative_strength": 18.519707, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.919462, "energy": 7.529199, "activity_lines": [ 0.728, 0.729, 0.73831, 0.734161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }