{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b33acec-ea60-4aad-bd59-e23bdf9f5245", "symbol": "GGBR3", "name": "Gerdau S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.2, "architecture_energy": 78.144, "architecture_maturity": 14.617, "architecture_confidence": 81.927, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.46, "rotation_up": 78.13, "upward_expansion": 93.29, "deceleration": 41.92, "rotation_down": 11.53, "downward_expansion": 19.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.034, 20.279818, 19.882907, 19.345233 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.32, "trend_reference": 18.82207, "distance_from_trend": 0.132713, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.05855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327642, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.233061, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.159317, "excess_performance": 0.216366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132713, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327642, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.182331, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084517, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159317, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.419001, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 257500, "relative_activity": 1.734124, "balance": 1.419001, "dry_up": 1.179204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05493, "annualized_volatility": 0.355088, "from_high_reference": -0.057471, "from_low_reference": 0.538683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.82207, "fair_value_reference": 16.05855, "structural_low": 15.064286, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.027589, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.028893, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.122284, "worst_return": -0.149852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029734, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.044279, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.287202, "worst_return": -0.175568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021503, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.075973, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.217152, "worst_return": -0.195528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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24.570764, "activity_lines": [ 18.876666, 19.224625, 19.010885, 18.690559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.58, "volume": 146600, "typical_volume": 147680.0, "trend": 18.443239, "fair_value": 15.999856, "relative_strength": 14.318684, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.014689, "energy": 23.898079, "activity_lines": [ 19.386666, 19.418727, 19.213373, 18.835899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.790001, "volume": 157300, "typical_volume": 145795.0, "trend": 18.55968, "fair_value": 16.01405, "relative_strength": 15.026876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.737601, "energy": 46.923909, "activity_lines": [ 19.972667, 19.651454, 19.421634, 18.987303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.49, "volume": 139000, "typical_volume": 144055.0, "trend": 18.70241, "fair_value": 16.031524, "relative_strength": 15.901985, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.554876, "energy": 74.450146, "activity_lines": [ 20.632667, 19.991091, 19.674627, 19.176356 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.32, "volume": 257500, "typical_volume": 148490.0, "trend": 18.82207, "fair_value": 16.05855, "relative_strength": 18.233061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.200104, "energy": 78.143534, "activity_lines": [ 21.034, 20.279818, 19.882907, 19.345233 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }