{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b3a6881-d1e2-4a09-bb48-24b428eb6a38", "symbol": "CFOU", "name": "BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials 2x Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.141, "architecture_energy": 66.313, "architecture_maturity": 91.03, "architecture_confidence": 85.745, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.38, "rotation_up": 56.9, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.12, "rotation_down": 28.13, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.935333, 78.863637, 73.717619, 68.766344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.07, "trend_reference": 63.005667, "distance_from_trend": 0.270838, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.71891, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.24167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.404291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.490784, "excess_performance": 0.370363, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.270838, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.24167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.22432, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.284043, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.490784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.663685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27500, "relative_activity": 0.94162, "balance": 1.663685, "dry_up": 2.200822, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045326, "annualized_volatility": 0.275188, "from_high_reference": -0.041422, "from_low_reference": 1.122746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.005667, "fair_value_reference": 35.71891, "structural_low": 45.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.037958, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": 0.02426, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.155869, "worst_return": -0.173028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.084577, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.067321, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.31277, "worst_return": -0.113431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.201136, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.132226, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.543385, "worst_return": -0.253908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 38.269613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.916173, "energy": 94.608358, "activity_lines": [ 77.744001, 74.039091, 67.776667, 63.809506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.040001, "volume": 69400, "typical_volume": 24730.0, "trend": 60.500667, "fair_value": 34.54641, "relative_strength": 39.702485, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.390451, "energy": 94.422027, "activity_lines": [ 79.577334, 76.071818, 69.651857, 65.261248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.949997, "volume": 104700, "typical_volume": 28400.0, "trend": 61.340333, "fair_value": 34.932179, "relative_strength": 32.791298, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.284468, "energy": 80.590694, "activity_lines": [ 79.743333, 77.187818, 71.098428, 66.451527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.330002, "volume": 55500, "typical_volume": 28950.0, "trend": 62.18, "fair_value": 35.32359, "relative_strength": 32.644434, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.549166, "energy": 66.801066, "activity_lines": [ 79.82, 78.072182, 72.445619, 67.612151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.07, "volume": 27500, "typical_volume": 29205.0, "trend": 63.005667, "fair_value": 35.71891, "relative_strength": 28.404291, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.141472, "energy": 66.312924, "activity_lines": [ 79.935333, 78.863637, 73.717619, 68.766344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }