{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b3fdc44-c4ee-41c4-8aea-b0a16fa0d1ec", "symbol": "AGMR", "name": "Silver Mountain Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.693, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.178, "architecture_energy": 29.17, "architecture_maturity": 18.202, "architecture_confidence": 74.238, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.87, "rotation_up": 21.72, "upward_expansion": 12.23, "deceleration": 56.43, "rotation_down": 48.27, "downward_expansion": 71.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.330667, 3.322182, 3.54919, 3.700753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.86, "trend_reference": 3.914167, "distance_from_trend": -0.013839, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.317647, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.929463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.641959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057387, "excess_performance": -0.177808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.929463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.114475, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01642, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357406, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057387, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.638533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 659900, "relative_activity": 1.063214, "balance": 0.638533, "dry_up": 0.738563, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137206, "annualized_volatility": 0.956095, "from_high_reference": -0.373377, "from_low_reference": 1.339394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.914167, "fair_value_reference": 1.317647, "structural_low": 2.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.016567, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 7.666667, "worst_return": -0.321429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.142857, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.035573, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.535714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.279499, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 11.8, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 3.09375, "active": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -58.90201, "energy": 58.318252, "activity_lines": [ 3.474, 3.711273, 3.828238, 3.939194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.2, "volume": 434500, "typical_volume": 822005.0, "trend": 3.987167, "fair_value": 1.238417, "relative_strength": -13.866902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.161158, "energy": 65.109979, "activity_lines": [ 3.354667, 3.598545, 3.751762, 3.888473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.89, "volume": 458500, "typical_volume": 745090.0, "trend": 3.975167, "fair_value": 1.256045, "relative_strength": -22.435492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.285897, "energy": 74.489983, "activity_lines": [ 3.166667, 3.436909, 3.653429, 3.817688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.04, "volume": 332800, "typical_volume": 700645.0, "trend": 3.953833, "fair_value": 1.274635, "relative_strength": -19.199614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.294133, "energy": 70.33126, "activity_lines": [ 3.092667, 3.325818, 3.583762, 3.757355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.14, "volume": 382400, "typical_volume": 645555.0, "trend": 3.9235, "fair_value": 1.293801, "relative_strength": -16.720296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.069592, "energy": 64.336501, "activity_lines": [ 3.087333, 3.252364, 3.530048, 3.704849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.86, "volume": 659900, "typical_volume": 620665.0, "trend": 3.914167, "fair_value": 1.317647, "relative_strength": -1.641959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.178248, "energy": 29.169762, "activity_lines": [ 3.330667, 3.322182, 3.54919, 3.700753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }