{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b4ba79a-d37c-429a-a264-6896447cf1c4", "symbol": "AWG", "name": "Ascent Bridge Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.064, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.146, "architecture_energy": 10.778, "architecture_maturity": 41.86, "architecture_confidence": 65.459, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.54, "rotation_up": 21.44, "upward_expansion": 46.82, "deceleration": 83.62, "rotation_down": 35.53, "downward_expansion": 29.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.233, 0.256818, 0.258048, 0.242043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.22, "trend_reference": 0.227133, "distance_from_trend": -0.031406, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.309295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.288705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.148886, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.154835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031406, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.288705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.273924, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.441489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.297352, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18400, "relative_activity": 0.112648, "balance": 3.297352, "dry_up": 0.763744, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.416434, "annualized_volatility": 1.615806, "from_high_reference": -0.694444, "from_low_reference": 1.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.227133, "fair_value_reference": 0.309295, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033208, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021549, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.172566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.370436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307692, "worst_return": -0.401709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.211731, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.246993, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.395349, "worst_return": -0.589744, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.154328, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.155617, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.674419, "worst_return": -0.641026, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109948, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.147059, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.714286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.863636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.213675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.857143, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.418182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.45, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047619, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.46, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 29560.0, "trend": 0.505833, "fair_value": 0.842245, "relative_strength": -23.442965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.707603, 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"typical_volume": 177395.0, "trend": 0.240133, "fair_value": 0.315641, "relative_strength": -49.459376, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.892464, "energy": 12.54835, "activity_lines": [ 0.267, 0.294764, 0.253386, 0.239615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.305, "volume": 221600, "typical_volume": 188165.0, "trend": 0.237633, "fair_value": 0.314391, "relative_strength": -25.656911, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.321596, "energy": 26.157634, "activity_lines": [ 0.269333, 0.2996, 0.260843, 0.2438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.245, "volume": 196700, "typical_volume": 197110.0, "trend": 0.234133, "fair_value": 0.312788, "relative_strength": -40.317706, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.028496, "energy": 23.061155, "activity_lines": [ 0.256667, 0.290564, 0.262086, 0.244275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.21, "volume": 62300, "typical_volume": 177620.0, "trend": 0.230467, "fair_value": 0.310962, "relative_strength": -47.793873, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.456875, "energy": 16.608663, "activity_lines": [ 0.241, 0.273091, 0.259686, 0.242718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.22, "volume": 18400, "typical_volume": 163340.0, "trend": 0.227133, "fair_value": 0.309295, "relative_strength": -44.148886, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.14558, "energy": 10.778475, "activity_lines": [ 0.233, 0.256818, 0.258048, 0.242043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }