{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b4f33a2-a730-4e95-8d62-6ff99d7421f3", "symbol": "EOS", "name": "Acteos SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.253, "architecture_energy": 27.899, "architecture_maturity": 46.216, "architecture_confidence": 61.989, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.13, "rotation_up": 22.37, "upward_expansion": 14.56, "deceleration": 66.5, "rotation_down": 40.81, "downward_expansion": 64.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.842, 0.838727, 0.862219, 0.870675 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.85, "trend_reference": 0.8874, "distance_from_trend": -0.042146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.139496, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.343766, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112735, "excess_performance": -0.166046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.042146, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023833, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044484, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112735, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.821073, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1977, "relative_activity": 0.434783, "balance": 0.821073, "dry_up": 1.134404, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050498, "annualized_volatility": 0.182499, "from_high_reference": -0.303279, "from_low_reference": 0.089744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8874, "fair_value_reference": 1.139496, "structural_low": 0.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.486486, "median_excess_return": -0.025704, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.294872, "worst_return": -0.208511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.072314, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.102104, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.101871, "worst_return": -0.262835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.131944, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.151285, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.068852, "worst_return": -0.279188, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186555, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": 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"volume": 9434, "typical_volume": 6635.3, "trend": 0.901533, "fair_value": 1.155362, "relative_strength": -19.521638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.771094, "energy": 81.170192, "activity_lines": [ 0.826667, 0.860545, 0.87501, 0.884985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.81, "volume": 1286, "typical_volume": 6341.1, "trend": 0.896867, "fair_value": 1.150618, "relative_strength": -18.892106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.616958, "energy": 81.286817, "activity_lines": [ 0.817333, 0.847164, 0.868552, 0.87908 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.85, "volume": 6190, "typical_volume": 5125.0, "trend": 0.8932, "fair_value": 1.146227, "relative_strength": -14.53586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.181448, "energy": 66.855333, "activity_lines": [ 0.826, 0.843018, 0.866429, 0.876056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.85, "volume": 11180, "typical_volume": 4743.3, "trend": 0.8902, "fair_value": 1.142958, "relative_strength": -15.111864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.969125, "energy": 41.278489, "activity_lines": [ 0.834667, 0.840145, 0.864343, 0.873269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.85, "volume": 1977, "typical_volume": 4547.1, "trend": 0.8874, "fair_value": 1.139496, "relative_strength": -16.343766, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.253187, "energy": 27.898935, "activity_lines": [ 0.842, 0.838727, 0.862219, 0.870675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }