{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b4f4918-a699-45c9-9d5f-aada95260928", "symbol": "MSB", "name": "Mesoblast Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.9, "architecture_energy": 14.588, "architecture_maturity": 12.557, "architecture_confidence": 50.536, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.25, "rotation_up": 49.64, "upward_expansion": 34.08, "deceleration": 36.06, "rotation_down": 20.11, "downward_expansion": 20.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.208667, 2.167455, 2.138762, 2.150817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.23, "trend_reference": 2.2075, "distance_from_trend": 0.010193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.613026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.382495, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.917759, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010193, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073906, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.382495, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052164, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.021534, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9886120, "relative_activity": 0.746546, "balance": 2.021534, "dry_up": 1.267117, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108141, "annualized_volatility": 0.456894, "from_high_reference": -0.326284, "from_low_reference": 0.18617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.2075, "fair_value_reference": 1.613026, "structural_low": 1.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.05134, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.025002, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.283582, "worst_return": -0.080402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04329, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.015745, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 2.059701, "worst_return": -0.68, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.082251, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.110826, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.089552, "worst_return": -0.628866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082988, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145228, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231834, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.199134, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130584, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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15.192834, "activity_lines": [ 2.087, 2.073455, 2.097048, 2.159527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.44, "volume": 30922236, "typical_volume": 14886874.35, "trend": 2.282167, "fair_value": 1.583393, "relative_strength": 3.039121, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.970472, "energy": 11.337389, "activity_lines": [ 2.216, 2.140636, 2.127452, 2.168699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.22, "volume": 12706124, "typical_volume": 13901187.0, "trend": 2.2595, "fair_value": 1.590635, "relative_strength": -5.736709, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.343139, "energy": 18.044536, "activity_lines": [ 2.239, 2.160182, 2.135952, 2.164688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.05, "volume": 13604615, "typical_volume": 13689107.05, "trend": 2.2355, "fair_value": 1.600919, "relative_strength": -14.675632, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.708624, "energy": 19.24077, "activity_lines": [ 2.199333, 2.146818, 2.128643, 2.151172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.23, "volume": 9886120, "typical_volume": 13242485.15, "trend": 2.2075, "fair_value": 1.613026, "relative_strength": -9.917759, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.899594, "energy": 14.588403, "activity_lines": [ 2.208667, 2.167455, 2.138762, 2.150817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }