{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b557c1e-a45a-40be-86ac-e110440dab46", "symbol": "QBUF", "name": "Innovator Nasdaq-100 10 Buffer ETF Quarterly", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.694, "architecture_energy": 24.957, "architecture_maturity": 62.891, "architecture_confidence": 75.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.41, "rotation_up": 28.94, "upward_expansion": 50.67, "deceleration": 82.33, "rotation_down": 38.84, "downward_expansion": 31.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.40166, 30.455844, 30.47509, 30.278377 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.8631, "trend_reference": 30.01306, "distance_from_trend": 0.028322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.790664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.110556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.653469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.050838, "excess_performance": -0.136616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028322, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.110556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00186, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033891, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.050838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.100355, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129895, "relative_activity": 0.562107, "balance": 1.100355, "dry_up": 0.628666, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01156, "annualized_volatility": 0.059914, "from_high_reference": -0.001517, "from_low_reference": 0.10245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.01306, "fair_value_reference": 27.790664, "structural_low": 29.0218, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.01035, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075305, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.040832, "worst_return": -0.011597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.041624, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.13714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.041624, "worst_return": 0.041624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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43.648346, "energy": 33.221008, "activity_lines": [ 30.49746, 30.572569, 30.440119, 30.20338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.975, "volume": 110857, "typical_volume": 228495.65, "trend": 29.939743, "fair_value": 27.740265, "relative_strength": -6.748339, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.209252, "energy": 22.464652, "activity_lines": [ 30.2994, 30.458736, 30.4214, 30.206353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.1613, "volume": 175360, "typical_volume": 231075.9, "trend": 29.96829, "fair_value": 27.762476, "relative_strength": -6.432244, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.979464, "energy": 19.505352, "activity_lines": [ 30.21344, 30.38932, 30.417091, 30.220647 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.8631, "volume": 129895, "typical_volume": 231085.7, "trend": 30.01306, "fair_value": 27.790664, "relative_strength": -8.653469, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.693555, "energy": 24.957001, "activity_lines": [ 30.40166, 30.455844, 30.47509, 30.278377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }