{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b55e4ca-287c-47d7-b010-eb0d71e11259", "symbol": "ETZ", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Stoxx Europe 600 UCITS ETF EUR C", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.615, "architecture_energy": 74.123, "architecture_maturity": 38.813, "architecture_confidence": 90.941, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 64.63, "upward_expansion": 88.07, "deceleration": 50.7, "rotation_down": 21.35, "downward_expansion": 14.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.408667, 21.264727, 20.894109, 20.57995 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.745001, "trend_reference": 20.256367, "distance_from_trend": 0.07349, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.048059, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.275512, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.410412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.090412, "excess_performance": 0.037101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07349, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.275512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059852, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044104, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090412, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.636313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 436926, "relative_activity": 0.845466, "balance": 2.636313, "dry_up": 0.976908, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019368, "annualized_volatility": 0.148205, "from_high_reference": -0.005261, "from_low_reference": 0.244705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.256367, "fair_value_reference": 17.048059, "structural_low": 18.120001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.013862, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.002275, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.074483, "worst_return": -0.089712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010247, "positive_rate": 0.923077, "directional_follow_through": 0.923077, "median_excess_return": 0.002139, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.125331, "worst_return": -0.041953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.070461, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.034519, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.154278, "worst_return": -0.124538, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011199, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.090537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019064, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022604, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055443, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.029422, "energy": 72.713409, "activity_lines": [ 21.176333, 21.043182, 20.656286, 20.399058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.365, "volume": 592277, "typical_volume": 532789.25, "trend": 20.1882, "fair_value": 16.998335, "relative_strength": 5.252264, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.546543, "energy": 58.860432, "activity_lines": [ 21.244, 21.127182, 20.762005, 20.479512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.745001, "volume": 436926, "typical_volume": 516787.0, "trend": 20.256367, "fair_value": 17.048059, "relative_strength": 4.410412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.614903, "energy": 74.123354, "activity_lines": [ 21.408667, 21.264727, 20.894109, 20.57995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }