{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b596802-de5b-4add-9692-baf7f2e96677", "symbol": "NATION", "name": "Nation Group (Thailand) Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.099, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.844, "architecture_energy": 10.459, "architecture_maturity": 52.359, "architecture_confidence": 76.138, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.25, "rotation_up": 32.6, "upward_expansion": 29.18, "deceleration": 27.76, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 42.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039333, 0.038909, 0.039238, 0.039699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.04, "distance_from_trend": 0.0, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.040577, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014218, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.1242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043478, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014218, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091799, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101242, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099636, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.60916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2069700, "relative_activity": 0.398203, "balance": 0.60916, "dry_up": 1.208635, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.307692, "annualized_volatility": 0.728159, "from_high_reference": -0.2, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.04, "fair_value_reference": 0.040577, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.210526, "directional_follow_through": 0.210526, "median_excess_return": -0.021986, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044488, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.092563, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.187501, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.143821, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.036667, 0.038182, 0.039238, 0.03957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.04, "volume": 21324000, "typical_volume": 5474690.0, "trend": 0.039333, "fair_value": 0.041346, "relative_strength": -11.435709, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.854565, "energy": 14.520729, "activity_lines": [ 0.037333, 0.038364, 0.039238, 0.039634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.04, "volume": 1446400, "typical_volume": 5340300.0, "trend": 0.039667, "fair_value": 0.04109, "relative_strength": -11.667532, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.993826, "energy": 11.865605, "activity_lines": [ 0.038, 0.038545, 0.039238, 0.039677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 287900, "typical_volume": 5184475.0, "trend": 0.04, "fair_value": 0.040833, "relative_strength": -10.669411, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.016853, "energy": 18.19205, "activity_lines": [ 0.038667, 0.038727, 0.039238, 0.039699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 2069700, "typical_volume": 5197600.0, "trend": 0.04, "fair_value": 0.040577, "relative_strength": -10.1242, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.844461, "energy": 10.459277, "activity_lines": [ 0.039333, 0.038909, 0.039238, 0.039699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }