{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b5d25ad-bff7-4b94-af92-c8e5e306bce9", "symbol": "MRC", "name": "Morguard Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.893, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.282, "architecture_energy": 56.266, "architecture_maturity": 4.857, "architecture_confidence": 85.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.7, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 25.73, "deceleration": 50.27, "rotation_down": 69.73, "downward_expansion": 53.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 115.283333, 117.74815, 119.231915, 118.85211 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 114.080002, "trend_reference": 118.304894, "distance_from_trend": -0.035712, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.240425, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.007414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.511658, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.014927, "excess_performance": -0.135348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012789, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.007414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091817, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072782, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.014927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.426791, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16200, "relative_activity": 2.078255, "balance": 0.426791, "dry_up": 1.988454, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033383, "annualized_volatility": 0.154318, "from_high_reference": -0.10307, "from_low_reference": 11447.06844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.304894, "fair_value_reference": 113.240425, "structural_low": 112.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000734, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.077693, "worst_return": -0.022638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004538, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01385, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026346, "worst_return": -0.049198, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.010992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040948, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058761, "worst_return": -0.036776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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32.741845, "activity_lines": [ 122.116552, 121.746931, 120.555216, 119.421789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 121.0, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 8615.0, "trend": 118.331742, "fair_value": 112.881373, "relative_strength": -7.536942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.042083, "energy": 30.11697, "activity_lines": [ 121.739999, 121.622302, 120.74538, 119.608555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 118.0, "volume": 13600, "typical_volume": 8680.0, "trend": 118.442055, "fair_value": 112.985884, "relative_strength": -9.25446, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.837995, "energy": 11.899321, "activity_lines": [ 120.416666, 120.939505, 120.61969, 119.587152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 117.949997, "volume": 20300, "typical_volume": 8980.0, "trend": 118.553695, "fair_value": 113.094298, "relative_strength": -9.119702, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.286766, "energy": 12.063474, "activity_lines": [ 119.263332, 120.334648, 120.474001, 119.555406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.0, "volume": 11900, "typical_volume": 8840.0, "trend": 118.427404, "fair_value": 113.15997, "relative_strength": -12.807205, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.006591, "energy": 41.392986, "activity_lines": [ 116.593332, 118.777663, 119.746649, 119.132587 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.080002, "volume": 16200, "typical_volume": 7795.0, "trend": 118.304894, "fair_value": 113.240425, "relative_strength": -13.511658, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.282042, "energy": 56.266226, "activity_lines": [ 115.283333, 117.74815, 119.231915, 118.85211 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }