{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3b5fa609-b14a-44f4-8982-ac9768c65ba8", "symbol": "APCO", "name": "Asian Phytoceuticals Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.103, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.808, "architecture_energy": 20.095, "architecture_maturity": 24.734, "architecture_confidence": 60.377, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.6, "rotation_up": 32.93, "upward_expansion": 25.05, "deceleration": 40.09, "rotation_down": 33.72, "downward_expansion": 52.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.625333, 2.617091, 2.622705, 2.63447 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.56, "trend_reference": 2.656662, "distance_from_trend": -0.036385, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.991805, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.358686, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.358917, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066411, "excess_performance": -0.258736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036385, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020217, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.358686, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017036, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066411, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.077659, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 481900, "relative_activity": 1.392352, "balance": 1.077659, "dry_up": 1.675864, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042067, "annualized_volatility": 0.143283, "from_high_reference": -0.229246, "from_low_reference": 0.032258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.656662, "fair_value_reference": 3.991805, "structural_low": 2.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024847, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041068, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031496, "worst_return": -0.116565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.0769, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.085078, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049505, "worst_return": -0.104294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.029065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089109, "worst_return": -0.147239, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.22536, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.279051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22536, "worst_return": 0.22536, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043104, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158879, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146853, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.377234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030675, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079755, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.0578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07971, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022901, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.024336, "volume": 2715400, "typical_volume": 3895185.0, "trend": 5.029575, "fair_value": 4.267043, "relative_strength": 11.652389, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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"energy": 20.700973, "activity_lines": [ 2.613333, 2.616727, 2.625517, 2.642066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7, "volume": 542600, "typical_volume": 309490.0, "trend": 2.666802, "fair_value": 4.029978, "relative_strength": -19.927849, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.501216, "energy": 9.610243, "activity_lines": [ 2.648, 2.631273, 2.631512, 2.644076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.62, "volume": 630300, "typical_volume": 332540.0, "trend": 2.662088, "fair_value": 4.010214, "relative_strength": -20.736536, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.508232, "energy": 14.820717, "activity_lines": [ 2.649333, 2.629818, 2.629813, 2.641056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.56, "volume": 481900, "typical_volume": 346105.0, "trend": 2.656662, "fair_value": 3.991805, "relative_strength": -21.358917, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.80824, "energy": 20.094528, "activity_lines": [ 2.625333, 2.617091, 2.622705, 2.63447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }